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archbrix on 27 June 2020
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Otter said:
archbrix said:

First off, no, 3DS wasn't dropped like a rock, but for the sake of argument... so what?  The point is that it was Nintendo's money maker, didn't live up to their expectations and it still got six years of life and dev support before their next console.  Switch's life before its successor won't be shorter than the 3DS.

Second, if you think that "No one is expecting the Switch to be replaced in 2022" then you haven't been paying attention. There are plenty of people who erroneously believe that Nintendo will release a new, more powerful Switch to combat the arrival of the new consoles.  Will there be a redesign of the current Switch?  Inevitably.  But will there be an all new console that supports an all new library?  Not any time soon.  And yes, when Switch 2 does arrive it will be backwards compatible just like Series X/One, obviously.



lol, I am one of those people. What I'm saying is that people's concepts of console succession and commercial success are very rigid. Times are changing. 

If you see the Switch as the 3DS' successor, that was a hard reset where Switch immediately received flagship Nintendo games that were not available on the 3DS. A lot of them. When people talk about a Switch 2 in 2022, many of us are not talking about a platform which arrives and forces the OG Switch out of the market right away with a whole bunch of exclusive Nintendo experiences.

Also Arbirary comparison don't make the best sense here, the 3DS may never reach the Gameboy Advance 81m figure but the GBA was replaced a lot quicker (4years). 

Remember the new3DS/DSi? These received exclusive software, and were weird late gen updates. Instead of doing a weird refresh or simply having a Switch Pro, I think Nintendo will just have a new Switch which will eventually transition into its own platform. Nintendo has found their mojo now and I think will more aggressively keep people in their echosystem and expand their online services with iterative hardware & soft generational leaps. No more starting from zero every 6 years.

This is an extremely safe business direction, the main counter argument is that it hasn't been done before in the game space but we can see MS moving towards this. The other thing is people are more obsessed by unit sales of individual platforms then they are about the actual stability and share value of Nintendo the company.

I think the Switch 2's release will not be based on the current Switch's sales. The Switch will inevitably be in decline in 2022, it's just a matter of when Nintendo feel the technology is right to offer a generational leap because I don't think Switch 2 will have any USP compared to Switch 1. And just as the Tegra X1 was released 2 years prior to the actual Switch, a Switch 2 in 2022 will not actually be any weaker than if the platform was released in 2024. A hard generational transition forces you to launch at a more accessible price since your entire business is leaning towards the new platform. A soft transition gives room for the Switch 2 to start at a premium price and live next to the more mass market $199-249 Switch for casuals, budget house holds and late adopters.

Something akin to the New 3DS or DSi is not what I'm referring to - that's entirely possible when they announce their redesign of the current Switch.  That is not Switch 2, which will be an entirely new system with the start of a new library for the 10th gen.  This splits the user base and the developers' priorities as well.  New 3DS had only a handful of exclusives, with Xenoblade and Fire Emblem Warriors being most notable, and the DSi had even less.  Not the same thing at all.  The idea that Nintendo would release a more powerful system so soon just to cater to 3rd parties is a recipe for disaster on so many levels.

Gameboy Advance was facing impending competition from Sony with PSP.  Nintendo was set with a touch screen gaming device years before iPhone or iPod Touch.  Launching the DS when they did was indisputably the right thing to do; I remember at E3 before launch, Iwata himself said that he was most proud of the DS out of all of Nintendo's accomplishments.  That was the power of the DS and Nintendo knew this.  The Switch faces zero direct competition on the horizon and its sales in its fourth year will far exceed what the GBA was doing aligned.

But you have made yourself clear to me now:  The majority of your argument hinges on the fallacy that Switch's sales will be in a dangerous decline come 2022.  If a redesign is indeed released in 2021, Switch's sales will be over 20m again, and 2022 will see shipments sales well above 15m; far more than the ~7m that the 3DS garnered in its 6th year.

Last edited by archbrix - on 27 June 2020