Will the PS3 indeed surpass the 360´s WW install base next year?

[EaglesEye379]

@Nidan

Nice graphs. Here are my thoughts after analysing them.

The PS3 was outselling the 360 between cases 1 and 2 from January to April but has since went below case 1 when GTA4 came until MGS4 hit, where PS3 outsold 360 by 200k for one week. However, its almost back to normal now and it remains to be seen whether there will be any increase from here.

From August 2008, the big exclusives will start to hit again all the way until Resident Evil 5 in March 2009.

Therefore, I cant see even case 1 happening for Q3, Q4 2008 and possibly Q1 2009. This is strong evidence that the PS3 will not catch up until 2010 (if at all). The PS3 will have to hit quite a lot above case 4 (they would need to outsell by 130-150k weekly, i call it case 4++) for practically all of 2009 to catch up by end of 2009.

For this case 4++ to happen, the next big exclusives Killzone, FF, GT and God of War have to be superbly amazing 98+ games that releases in early 2009 and appeal to the mainstream above and beyond the core gamer and at least $100 price cut worldwide and a slim version with BC. As you know, all these are highly unlikely at this point due to Sonys profitability strategies (plus their own corporate forecasts of 10m) and we dont even know whether those games will make it until Holiday 2009.

2009 is the year that PS3 needs to deliver and I think its the real put up or shut up year for the PS3. MANY people on this forum have told us it will be 2008. Now its 2009 (and people are already going from June to December). Frankly I think we will be hearing this next year: 2010 is the year of the PS3.