| tbone51 said:
My prediction and better estimate with FY being higher and a small decline in 2022 FY. NSW FY1 2.74mil (launch) FY2 15.05mil FY3 16.95mil FY4 21.03mil FY5 23.50mil (stock almost on store shelves) FY6 19.00mil -19%YoY (new model/more aggressive deals) FY7 14.25mil -25%YoY FY8 10.50mil -25%YoY FY9 7.50mil -30%YoY |
This looks probable I think. But I think a Spring 2024 Switch 2 launch is most likely and Switch sales die off quickly after that, so that FY9 will drop off I think to like 3mil instead of 7.5mil. But through FY8 I feel like you're pretty much dead on, I might adjust FY5 - FY8 down by a total of like 1 or 2 million but that's about it.
A 2022 launch for successor is just a completely absurd idea at this point. 2023 is a bit early as well. At absolute earliest Nintendo might release it holiday 2023. But Spring 2024 feels just right. Holiday 2023 might be a Pokemon game as the last major first party title for Switch, and lots of discounts to close out the Switch with a great final holiday, as people look forward to the Switch 2 a few months later. Any longer than that feels like it would probably be dragging on. By 2024 it'd probably be a very weak year for Switch if they tried to keep it going all the way until the holidays before a successor launches.
I'd say like 60% chance of spring 2024 launch, 35% holiday 2023, 4% holiday 2024, 1% spring 2023.
Last edited by Slownenberg - on 24 June 2020
