Taking the data over the last 6 months i have come up with the following. 4 base cases
-1) PS3 outsells Xbox by 46.4K/units/week ( then PS3 will win by 14-November-2010)
-2) PS3 outsells Xbox by 66.4K/units/week ( then PS3 will win by 21-February-2010)
-3) PS3 outsells Xbox by 86.4K/units/week ( then PS3 will win by 4-October-2009)
-4) PS3 outsells Xbox by 106.4K/units/week ( then PS3 will win by 12-July-2009)
(I still stand by my predictions from Jan08, which look to be close ;))
BTW , Factoring out MSG4's boost. PS3 is only outselling Xbox360 by around 37.5K/ month....so MSG4 gave a boost of approx 9K/month when averaged over the 6 months. Considering this we need alot of "system sellers" to get to the levels needed for the PS3 to beat Xbox360 any time soon.
Predictions JAN 08
2008 PS3-19.5M(actual 19.5) XBOX360-23M(actual 27.5) Wii - 37M(actual 45.8M)
End of 2009 PS3-27 25M XBOX360-30 35M Wii - 48 63M (revised DEC 08)
Price Point
Mid 2008 Wii $250 Xbox360$249 Xbox360(HDD)$299 PS3 $399
Mid 2009 Wii $189 Xbox360$199 Xbox360(HDD)$249 PS3 $339
Mid 2010 Wii $ 149 Xbox360$159 Xbox360(HDD)$199 PS3 $289
