FAMITSU TOP SELLING GAMES JAPAN ALL TIME(physical):
11. Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (PSP) - 4.850.000
12. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Switch) - 4.783.229
13. New Super Mario Bros (Wii) - 4.630.000
Animal Crossing: New Horizons will probably overtake MHF3 next week. It will be sitting comfortably within the Top 10 best selling physical game of all time by the end of this quarter. Probably Top 5 by the end of next quarter.
Looking at what Splatoon 2 achieved in the biggest weeks of 2017, I can only imagine how much New Horizon is going to be selling this Christmas:
Famitsu Sales: Week 43, 2017 (Oct 16 - Oct 22)
Splatoon 2 - 14.161 / 1.288.631 <80-100%> (-23%)
NSW - 23.892
Famitsu Sales: Week 52, 2017 (Dec 18 - Dec 24)
Splatoon 2 - 132.886 / 1.671.970 <80-100%> (+98%)
NSW - 159.636
Famitsu Sales: Week 1, 2018 (Jan 01 - Jan 07)
Splatoon 2 - 130.901 / 1.882.997 <80-100%>(+63%)
NSW - 303.504 / 3.566.794
Animal Crossing is already at 35% physical attach rate on the Switch a system with nearly 14M owners in Japan. It will climb to at least 45% by the end of the year, which would be 8.1M physical sales on 18M Switches sold.
If Switch supply remains about 50-80K average per week during the slower summer/autumn months, Animal Crossing: New Horizons won't drop below 30K anytime soon. The only way it drops below 30K is if Nintendo is shipping 25K Switches per week(due to supply problems).
At a bare minimum, I think New Horizon will sell 6.2M physical by the end of the year and this is only, with major supply chain problems. The big question is how many Switches Nintendo is able to ship until the end of the year
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