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noshten on 10 June 2020
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padib said:
hinch said:

Hmm I don't think MH did that well on home PS3, there was one exclusive on there iirc that did okay.

FF and Kingdom Hearts seem to do decently there and Resident Evil. KHIII/XV did 1 million LTD, which is very good for a non Nintendo game. Monster Hunter World of PS4 did 0.84 which is decent as well.

There is a market for home consoles in Japan its just smaller than before.

You have a point about MH on consoles. What about Souls-like, they seem quite popular. Do we know how fared the follow-ups to those on the top 10 list posted earlier?

@noshten. Do you by any chance have an updated chart of 3rd party sales (non-switch), basically an update to the first chart you posted?

For the PS4, I think I posted it in the Famitsu thread broken down by publisher

Most Japanese 3rd Party publishers are down more than 30% in terms of physical sales during the transition from PS3/PSV -> PS4.

The transition hurt companies that had AA titles, most of those saw decline going to PS4 only. So digital isn't really making up the difference in total numbers but it's more profitable for the likes of Capcom and Square who saw growth during this period. 

Lifetime sales of Switch in Japan will be at 25-35M. Nintendo hasn't even lowered the price of the base Switch 3 years into its life... the 3DS they had to slash 30% off to save it during it's the first year... People forget that 3DS wasnt off to a great start when it retailed at 25,000 yen and Nintendo cut the price to 17,000 during its first year. Switch is still 29,000 yen in Japan, right now you are again paying premium from scalpers if you don't want to rely on lotteries. 

Japan continues to be a price-sensitive market - so as soon as they do, once again they will have supply problems. This is the same reason why PS5 will struggle if it's 40,000 yen.

At the moment Nintendo could ship 100K per week at the same price as launch. And this is happening in the summer when generally we haven't seen such sales since forever.. What happens if they announce a big DLC for Animal Crossing to coincide with Obon. 

During 2012 when Animal Crossing New Leaf launched, 3DS achieved 5.5M units, at this point of the year the 3DS was at 1.8M units, right now the Switch is at 2.3M and demand isn't slowing down. That was 3DS's best year on the market. Right now with 6 Months to go:

Animal Crossing: New Horizon = Animal Crossing: New Leaf + New Super Mario Bros. 2 + 600K

Top 10 3DS 2012:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 2.286.977
  2. New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.780.493
  3. Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry no Wonderland 3D - 899.410
  4. Mario Kart 7 - 822.542
  5. Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate - 776.171 
  6. Super Mario 3D Land - 738.109
  7. Fire Emblem: Awakening - 453.672
  8. Paper Mario: Sticker Star - 391.078
  9. Taiko no Tatsujin - 352.023
  10. Run For Money Tousouchuu - 351.523

TOTAL: 8.851.998

TOP 10 Switch Famitsu 2020:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons(2020) - 4.685.419 
  2. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 619.825
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 460.920
  4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 306.835
  5. Smash Ultimate - 258.020
  6. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX(2020) - 255.177
  7. Minecraft - 253.911
  8. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 205.003
  9. Super Mario Party - 193.210
  10. Splatoon 2 - 184.664

TOTAL: 7.422.984

New Horizon's domination is unprecedented, by the end of the year the game could very well be at 7M physical sales minimum. No company in Japan can compete with this. When Nintendo release a Christmas themed Animal Crossing Bundle to go with their Winter Themed expansion they'd sell out even without lowering the price... This year is probably heading for 6M in Japan if Nintendo can supply that much.