| Trumpstyle said: Based on that Harvard report you linked before, the virus were spreading since August, that would put the R at ~1.5 maybe even less. So you don't need to do much to contain the virus. As for sweden R number, I think it has been below 1 ever since April 9, here's our chart from worldometer:
And here's how much testing we doing:
Vecka = Week, Green is positive result, purple negative result. We were doing 20k test a week in beginning of april, last week 48k tests, we have started testing people will lighter symptons to the virus, that's why we saw an decent increase last week. You probably only need about 20-30% immunity in cities to control the virus if do no restrictions/social distansing. I think the virus will be almost gone/eliminated next month in Sweden. |
I think you said the exact same thing a month ago :p
More tests will of course reveal more new cases and ongoing cases. Sweden did enough to contain the virus, just not enough to stop people dying.
Stockholm still has reduced mobility, I guess working from home is the new normal
To get below R 1 by herd immunity, to put it (too) simple, if R is 1.5 without any measures, meaning on average each person causes 1.5 new infections, thus at least 33% need to be immune to infection to reduced that to 1. However while the country average might be 1.5, it's much higher in cities and lower in sparsely populated areas. If it's 2.0 in cities, 50% need to be immune to stop growth.
A lower 'natural' R due to it having spread for a lot longer than previously assumed, also means that immunity test results also don't grow much passed their 'valid' date. And definitely not when Rt is already around 1 or lower. Every little bit counts though. It would be great to know how many people already have (effective) immunity and how long that would work...
