Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Trumpstyle]

SvennoJ said:

Trumpstyle said:

What would you estimate the R number to be if left unchecked. Now that it might have been spreading since november? Estimates right now puts it somewhere at 2.

That sounds more plausible atm. It's hard to tell since it depends so much on population density and general behavior of people. It will also accelerate when more people are contagious within the same building. More virus particles circulating around in a closed environment.

Very crude unscientific assesment
Late August start, we're about 300 days in, reaching 7.2 million reported infections world wide, representing perhaps 70 to 100 million actual infections. To reach 100 million today from a patient zero 300 days ago, 1.063x increase per day, global R of 1.37 with lock downs.

China had 1287 reported cases on Janurari 24 (lock down) yet likely at least 20x as many with spotty early testing.
150 days from late August to Jan 24th.
25K cases (20x more than detected) would be 1.070x daily increase, R of 1.41
50K cases (40x more than detected) would be 1.075x daily increase, R of 1.44
130K cases (100x more than detected) would be 1.081x daily increase, R of 1.5

Based on that Harvard report you linked before, the virus were spreading since August, that would put the R at ~1.5 maybe even less. So you don't need to do much to contain the virus.

As for sweden R number, I think it has been below 1 ever since April 9, here's our chart from worldometer:

And here's how much testing we doing:

Vecka = Week, Green is positive result, purple negative result.

We were doing 20k test a week in beginning of april, last week 48k tests, we have started testing people with lighter symptons to the virus, that's why we saw an decent increase last week. You probably only need about 20-30% immunity in cities to control the virus if do no restrictions/social distansing.

I think the virus will be almost gone/eliminated next month in Sweden.

Last edited by Trumpstyle - on 10 June 2020