| haxxiy said: Calibrated molecular clocks and genetic analysis indicate all SARS-CoV-2 viral strains descend from the basal types found in Wuhan at the beginning of the year, though, with the earliest possible spread sometime in December (and the virus jumping from animal to human hosts between October and December). Besides, we have data from register offices, adjusted to the day of death, strongly suggesting very rapid spread in the preceding weeks. Bergamo lost 0.4% of its population in a few weeks in March, for instance, with dramatic peaks of abnormal mortality also happening in New York City and Spain soon after. I think we can confidently argue spread began before everyone was paying attention in a lot of places, but the exceptions like Taiwan and New Zealand would also mean the virus spreading that early wouldn't really make sense in the context of their success. For some reason, the reproduction rate seems just that different from place to place, so there isn't much we can make of it. Why the attack hate was 60% in Bergamo but 10% in Wuhan, for instance? |
Yet it was already present November 17th and likely earlier.
https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html
The difference with Australia at least is that they did not have any people attending the military games in Wuhan end of October (Not sure about New Zealand have to check). Europe and NA did have athletes there who reported getting sick.
The attack rate goes up exponentially with the time the disease has to spread uncontrolled. Wuhan locked down Januari 24th with 1200 confirmed cases and 40 reported deaths, Italy didn't lock down until they had 10,000 confirmed cases and 500 deaths, March 9th.
The fatality rate is also directly tied to the age distribution, avg age of 38.4 in China, 45.4 in Italy. Add in different living conditions and one big fatal error when schools closed in Italy, namely grand parents jumped in to help take care of the kids, and you have created the perfect storm for this virus.
The reproduction rate is indeed very different between areas. It heavily depends on population density, living conditions and cultural differences (hand shake or bow etc). It can spread undetected in the young and healthy (just the flu) until it hits elderly homes and people start dying. The early spread was during flu season, great way for this new virus to hide. Yet reports of strange pneumonia date back to November in Italy, UK and France.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-23/Italian-expert-talks-about-strange-pneumonia-cases-in-November-P68sAd0p6o/index.html
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-08/First-COVID-19-cases-in-France-date-back-to-November-QjPChuck9y/index.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-evidence-race-find-france-s-covid-19-patient-zero-n1207871
I wish there was a follow up on this
https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1094347/world-military-games-illness-covid-19
Any anti body tests here would be helpful as well to know whether my wife already (barely) survived it in Februari. I asked the testing center but they didn't have any other tests and I guess weren't interested in early cases. She's still not fully recovered from the severe double pneumonia she had with most of the other symptoms of covid19. Atm she's struggling with this https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/04/stomach-complaints-common-in-covid-19-patients.html. A relapse, something else, who knows. We have been isolating for months, I don't get it.
