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SvennoJ on 09 June 2020
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Trumpstyle said:
SvennoJ said:



This would be good news (lower R0) since it will be easier to keep Rt under 1 and also explains why countries like Sweden aren't exploding with minimal measures. Total lock down is not necessary, yet a little bit more than Sweden is doing. And of course still more in very densely populated areas with people working on top of each other. Stay safe, stay outside if you go anywhere.

What would you estimate the R number to be if left unchecked. Now that it might have been spreading since november? Estimates right now puts it somewhere at 2.

That sounds more plausible atm. It's hard to tell since it depends so much on population density and general behavior of people. It will also accelerate when more people are contagious within the same building. More virus particles circulating around in a closed environment.

Very crude unscientific assesment
Late August start, we're about 300 days in, reaching 7.2 million reported infections world wide, representing perhaps 70 to 100 million actual infections. To reach 100 million today from a patient zero 300 days ago, 1.063x increase per day, global R of 1.37 with lock downs.

China had 1287 reported cases on Janurari 24 (lock down) yet likely at least 20x as many with spotty early testing.
150 days from late August to Jan 24th.
25K cases (20x more than detected) would be 1.070x daily increase, R of 1.41
50K cases (40x more than detected) would be 1.075x daily increase, R of 1.44
130K cases (100x more than detected) would be 1.081x daily increase, R of 1.5

Changing the start to late September (120 days)
25K cases (20x more than detected) would be 1.088x daily increase, R of 1.54
50K cases (40x more than detected) would be 1.094x daily increase, R of 1.58
130K cases (100x more than detected) would be 1.103x daily increase, R of 1.65

Changing the start to late October (90 days)
25K cases (20x more than detected) would be 1.119x daily increase, R of 1.78
50K cases (40x more than detected) would be 1.128x daily increase, R of 1.85
130K cases (100x more than detected) would be 1.140x daily increase, R of 1.95

It all depends on how many cases were missed and when the infection actually started.
The first confirmed cases was traced back to November 17th, but that was not patient zero.