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noshten on 06 June 2020
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Bandai & Square leading 3rd Party Publishers on Switch

For the Switch expect that Captain Tsubasa will sell at least 500K on the system. It's these types of games that people are underestimating and it's this type of game that would eventually be the first Japanese 3rd Party publisher to have a 1M seller on the Switch in Japan. So Bandai does have a AA follow up to Fishing Spirits & Taiko which will both eventually sell over 500K physical as well. 

Bravely Default 2 will probably end up the best selling game in the franchise in Japan. How high is the potential? I'd say DQXIS level, so another game with a chance of passing 500K. There are only 8 Games on the PS4 that sold over 500K.. So when talking about success for Japanese 3rd Parties, Switch is already successful based on their output. I mean outside of Yo-kai Watch everything else has seen growth compared to prior entries. 

They haven't invested huge amounts into games like Captain Tsubasa, Taiko, Fishing Spirits, Bravely Default 2 yet all those games are set to be pretty successful. At this point, any game from Dragon Ball or Dragon Quest franchise missing the Switch is almost impossible. 

Microsoft/Square/Bandai Top 25

  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.399.850
  2. Dragon Quest XI S (SE) - 522.970
  3. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'N' Fun! (BN) - 475.437
  4. Fishing Spirits (BN) - 440.969
  5. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (SE) - 295.237
  6. Octopath Traveller (SE) -193.780
  7. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (BN) - 181.090
  8. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (BN) - 149.562
  9. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (BN) - 145.720
  10. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (BN) - 114.388
  11. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (BN) - 112.104
  12. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (BN) - 110.954
  13. Dragon Ball FighterZ (BN) - 92.697
  14. Trials of Mana (SE) - 96.809
  15. Go Vacation (BN) - 80.842
  16. Dragon Quest Builders (SE) - 74.772
  17. Dragon Quest Heroes I & II (SE) - 64.404
  18. SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays (BN) - 60.173
  19. Super Robot Wars T (BN) - 53.810
  20. Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster (SE) - 52.670
  21. My Hero Academia: One's Justice (BN) - 52.350
  22. Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon: Every Buddy! (SE) - 52.098
  23. Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (SE) - 48.348
  24. Chou Tousouchuu & Chou Sentouchuu Double Pack (BN) - 47.831
  25. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 - Deluxe Edition (BN) - 45.029

Rest of Japanese 3rd Party support is lackluster 

The problem is simply the lack of successful games from the likes of Level-5, Sega, Koei Tecmo, Capcom, Atlas.. 

When looking at their output so far it's not suprising:

Top 25 without Bandai, Microsoft, Square

  1. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 358.356
  2. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 312.574
  3. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 309.596
  4. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 225.614
  5. Super Bomberman R (Konami) - 215.218
  6. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Ubisoft) - 213.453
  7. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 146.363
  8. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  9. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 110.521
  10. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold (Level 5) - 109.955
  11. FIFA 19 (EA) - 89.875
  12. Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) - 87.370
  13. Sumikko Gurashi (Nippon Columbia) - 84.957
  14. Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) - 83.433
  15. Attack on Titan 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 80.471
  16. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558
  17. Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 65.653
  18. Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei Tecmo) - 64.747
  19. Rune Factory 4 Special (Marvelous) - 62.412
  20. FIFA 20 (EA) - 56.886
  21. Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition (Koei Tecmo) - 54.021
  22. Daemon x Machina (Marvelous) - 49.099
  23. Attack on Titan 2: Final Battle (Koei Tecmo) - 48.904
  24. Warriors Orochi 4 (Koei Tecmo) - 47.608
  25. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda) - 44.996

Top 15 Publishers(Top 50 3rd Party Titles)

  1. Bandai Namco - 2.162.956
  2. Microsoft - 1.399.850
  3. Square Enix - 1.381.941
  4. Sega - 561.935
  5. Level 5 - 468.311
  6. Konami - 440.832
  7. Capcom - 309.596
  8. Koei Tecmo - 295.751
  9. EA - 269.759
  10. Marvelous - 257.874
  11. Ubisoft - 213.453
  12. Imagineer - 110.521
  13. Nippon Columbia - 84.957
  14. Atlus - 65.653
  15. Bethesda - 44.996

  • Sega has a Nintendo branded Olympics game
  • Level 5 who went from selling millions on the 3DS to pretty much being a nonfactor
  • To me, it's crazy that Konami has outsold Capcom, Koei Tecmo, Atlus with just two games
  • Capcom's last million-selling games on Nintendo ecosystems was Monster Hunter XX back in 2017 - 1.7M
  • 3 Years of basically nothing major from a lot of these companies means that they've missed millions of potential sales 
  • In the meantime Square, Bandai, Microsoft, Marvelous and indies were able to cultivate an audience 
  • Atlus is the one that I would say is the greatest hit by this, as Capcom at least has a massively successful MHW launch on the PS4
  • Koei Tecmo need to try to branch out of the warrior's formula... maybe try something slightly different