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javi741 on 28 May 2020
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
javi741 said:
The Switch sales for 2020 are insane, Switch sales for 2020 are up 80% YoY which is nearly DOUBLE 2019 sales! If the Switch were to keep this 80% YoY growth for the rest of the year it would go on to sell 35Million in 2020 ALONE! Which has never been done by a video game system before in history with the closest one being the DS, which had 2 years of selling 30Million Consoles, in terms of Home consoles, the closest one was the Wii selling 26M in 1 year. The Switch having a chance to blow past these numbers selling 35M in one year is mind-blowing and would put it at not only one of the fastest selling video game systems of all time, but one of the fastest selling products in world history period.

However, it's likely foolish to think that the Switch will keep this YoY growth for the rest of 2020 especially since it's going to be difficult to top 2019's Holiday season since we saw the release of Pokemon which is a huge game. Plus it's uncertain whether this lock-down situation will continue til the end of the year since that's been a huge reason why Switch sales have been way up this year, plus shortages may be an issue, a lot of uncertainties make it difficult to believe this 80% growth YoY will continue through 2020.

However, even a more realistic amount like sales up 40-50% YoY would put the Switch between 27-29M for 2020, which is also insane and never been done by a Home Console.

If we were to take Switch sales YoY before the COVID-19 Shortages, lockdown, and Animal Crossing release, which was 23% YoY growth before all this happened, Switch sales would be at 24M for the year, which is also amazing despite being a conservative YoY growth rn.

So I think it's safe to say MINIMUM the Switch will sell 24M in 2020 and the Max is 35M, I expect the Switch to sell an insane 27M for the year, which would put the Switch at 75M sold by the end of 2020 with shipments likely at 78M, surpassing the 3DS while not even being 4 Years old yet.

What do you guys think?

I posted not too long ago that I think Switch will sell in the 21M-24M range for the current calender year.  35M is far too optimistic for the current calender year, because it's based on a comparison with 2019.  Sales in 2019 were very strong in the last 4 months or so and not as impressive before that.  On the other hand, anyone saying Switch sales will be flat compared to last year (or down) is being far too pessimistic.  We're almost half way through the year and Switch is up an incredible 80% YoY.  Those gains are not going to be magically erased by the end of the year.  

So right now I think 21M-24M for Switch.

I think 21-24 might be a little too low, for the Switch to somehow land in that sales range, it either needs to have 0% YoY growth for every week for the rest 2020 or start having a significant YoY decline in the Holiday Season which I find difficult to believe will happen unless there are major shortages. 

The Switch sales in 2020 Year to Date compared to 2019 is already nearly 4M units ahead of 2019, so the Switch would essentially need to have a 0% growth or a decline for the rest of 2020 to land between 21-24M sold for the year,which let's be honest, it isn't going to happen since week after week during this quarantine Switch sales have DOUBLED from 2019, to think that the Switch in the future anytime this year would go week after week having a decline or 0% growth at this point is unrealistic.

You brought up the fact that the majority of the Switch's sales came from the Holiday Season 2019 which may be hard to top, which is true. However, based on how much demand there currently is for Nintendo Switch's and even before this Quarantine and Animal Crossing Switch sales were up 23% YoY, it's hard to believe the Switch's 2020 Holiday Season will sell any less than 2019 since there's more overall interest in the Switch and this quarantine will only help spread awareness of the Switch even if it ends by the Holiday Season.

I believe 24M sold is the min for 2020, unless shortages become a problem