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SvennoJ on 28 May 2020
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JRPGfan said:
Azhraell said:

Brazil numbers are such a question mark for me, already top 2 in cases while being one of the countries with less tests in the top 20. All this while having around 210(?) million people. I sure hope it's actually them containing it well but after listening to bolsonaro and having 3 different health ministers in short time feels like their numbers are not even close to reality.

The differnce is most other places the outbreak isn't as bad.
Brazil tested 870,000 people, confirmed cases over 414,000.
~48% of the people the test, have the virus.

Now imagine if they tested as much as other countries do?  (Brazil test pr 1m people = ~4100, other countries its 50,000-100,000)
(pretty sure they would have alot more cases confirmed, than the USA does)

Basically Brazil isnt doing anything to try and stop the spread, so its just everywhere.
I wouldnt be surprised if actually like 1/7 of brazil was infected (~15%).

Deaths is probably also massively under reported in brazil.
(Again I wouldnt be surprised, if actual deaths to covid were like 5-10 times their reported numbers.
Brazil probably only counts people tested as confirmed covid19 deaths, however because of poor testing,
tons of others will probably never get counted. The proof will be in the records of pneumonia + blood clot/heart attacks, deaths registered during this time, which they will be labled as instead

Why is it like this?

The chart SvennoJ posted illustrates it pretty well.


USA is the green graph line, named "the hammer", and is like halfways through that phase.
However instead of surpressing the virus, they choose to give up. Gotta save the economy right?

Brazil is the black graph line, named "Do nothing", and is just riseing and will keep doing so, until they reach herd immunite (~70%+ infections).
We cant afford to ruin our economy, so we ll just ignore this virus... and maybe fix numbers abit, so it doesnt look as horrible.
(is this way better for the economy? whos to say, its sure to kill alot more of your people though)

The excess deaths don't seem to be that bad in Brazil but who knows
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
They estimate 6,000 excess deaths a week for Brazil (last updated May 19th) yet they only have data for the 5 major cities.
Brazil reported 5,736 deaths from May 13th to (including) May 19th.

That would be the result of reported cases about 15 days earlier, 40,624 cases from April 28th to (including) May 4th.
A case fatality ratio of 14.1%. Estimates based on anti body tests came to a minimum 0.7% infected fatality ratio.
The average age in Brazil is on the lower side so 0.7% estimate is probably in the right ball park.
That means at least 819K people should have been infected during the week of April 28th. Under reporting by a factor 20.

Deaths seem to be about the same as in most countries when it comes to under reporting, testing however falls far short.

Comparing reported cases in Brazil to the USA

While reported cases are under reported in Brazil compared to the USA, USA managed to contain the spread while Brazil only managed to slow it down.
For reported deaths the USA is currently at 1066 per week, Brazil 972 per week. Brazil has the younger population so definitely passed the USA in infections already. The USA is also trending down in reported deaths while Brazil is still trending up.

Brazil is on the mitigation path, the red line, yet less steep as portrayed.
USA is trying the hammer, but as you see, they're not really coming down. At about -7% week over week change the hammer is more like the new normal. That's well over 2 months to half their current numbers.

Herd immunity still takes a long time to reach with many unknowns (how long, how well protected etc)
At the 0.7% infected fatality rate estimate and assuming half of deaths missed, 50K deaths (very high estimate) so far, coming from 7 million infected 15 days ago. Average growth rate of 202% over the last 15 days, thus high estimate of 14 million infected today, at the very most 7% infected today.

And yep, reaching that 70% herd immunity will cost about 1 million lives in Brazil.
(And more when the hospitals collapse under the pressure)