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SvennoJ on 28 May 2020
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donathos said:
SvennoJ said:

Yep, apologies to those trying to view the graphs on a phone :)

How naive we were at the start, 2 months lock down seemed excessive. It should be contained in 4 weeks tops. All those flatten the curve graphs with a nice symmetrical hump at the start.

Nope, not happening that way. (except New Zealand and Australia, they actually pulled it off)

Things aren't settled yet, and we oughtn't discuss them as though they are... but...

Haven't we mostly managed to do what was asked, and exemplified by that graph? Haven't we "flattened the curve" via our protective measures? Seems to me like people act now as though the mission was originally "stop the virus cold in its tracks" or something, but it wasn't. It was acknowledged early on, to the best of my recollection, that the genie was out of the lamp, and that we could only mitigate the spread -- draw it out over time, precisely so that we could avoid crossing that dotted blue line. Because we were all afraid of the nightmare scenario of our hospitals being completely overrun, people who needed ventilators and couldn't get them, people with other emergencies being denied basic access, etc. None of that has happened (yet). Well, that's why we locked down, not to eliminate the virus or its spread.

I don't know who was imagining that the virus would just up and go away (outside of Trump), but that was never on the table: it was not possible, and it won't be possible unless and until we have an effective vaccine.

Nope suppression was the plan all along which second (smaller) waves planned in.

See that 3 to 7 weeks, that's what's failing in the vast majority of countries. Italy has been going on for 13 weeks and only recently dropped back down under 100 deaths per day. The rest of Europe isn't more than 1 or 2 weeks behind Italy.

Many countries are already starting the dance before getting it well enough under control and meeting all the goals of the hammer phase, so we're ending up with a flattened yet long drawn out curve where we sort of accept x number of deaths daily, can't be arsed to do better.

The lower you get it, the easier it is to control. The less strict you are the slower the decline and if you start relaxing restrictions too soon, you risk higher secondary waves and keep the death toll adding up.

South Korea is so far the only place with experience with the dance in a working manner. Japan, New Zealand and Australia are arriving at that phase right now. The rest are all jumping the gun imo. Plus look at SpokenTruth's charts, 23 nations without active cases. It's possible.

A Vaccine for mass application is still 12 to 18 months away (with no clue yet how effective it will be). That's a lot of deaths until then, 2.5 million at the current rate.