April NPD 2020: Switch 808k, PS4 411k, XB1 329k

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Pyro as Bill said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

You might be right, but I think this depends a lot on what Nintendo does.  Switch actually has several games that feel like Wii games: Mario Kart, Ring Fit Adventure, Arms, 1-2 Switch, Super Mario Party and Clubhouse Games (soon).  Add to that the third party games that fit this theme, like Just Dance, and there are enough games to attract most or all of the Wii crowd over.

But I think there is a decent chunk of this crowd that needs more marketing.  With the Wii, it was obvious that it was about motion controls from the marketing.  Switch is not marketed this way.  Some of that Wii crowd may not realize that there are games for them on the Switch, so they just keep playing it on the Wii instead.

$300 without a game that offers the value Wii Sports did is still a lot to ask for those who only want a Wii. RFA+Switch have been hitting WiiFit+Wii holiday prices on Ebay so there are positive signs. Despite the claims that the Switch installments have dropped the 'casual' and are now more core, the reality is they're more casual too. More accessible controls (autodrive/steer in MK8D), more minigames (28 in 12S, 51 in CHG), better motion control (ARMS v Wii Boxing), more intense exergaming (RFA/ARMS).

Looking back maybe Nintendo should have unbundled and delayed Wii Sports and cancelled or delayed Mario Kart Wii. Launch with New Play Mario Tennis/Golf alongside Double Dash Deluxe w/wheel instead. The casuals would have still come eventually and the slow build could have stopped some of the shortages. Maybe Wii Fit should have come before Wii Sports too.

This is a decent point.  This crowd may just need a really good holiday bundle to "switch" over from the Wii.  For them Mario Kart and a price drop or Mario Kart + another Wii like game (Mario Party, 2D Mario, ect...) may be enough to convince them to get a Switch.