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SvennoJ on 25 May 2020
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Trumpstyle said:
SvennoJ said:


The peak in Ontario was 634 reported cases (Apr 23) which dropped down to 294 (May 10), filtered the drop was 47% (595 -> 316)
And now we're posting just over 400 a day again.


Edit: Ontario already put its numbers up, higher again +460. However pending tests dropped by 2500, so perhaps a part of the 460 belonged to yesterday, not that that matters much. A full week of increasing daily cases, 3 day avg growth rate of 121% week over week atm.
This week 2,847 reported cases
Last week 2,412 reported cases
118% change compared to a full week ago, 1.024x daily growth, 29.3 days to double, so still plenty of time to adjust course.
Hopefully it will sort itself out and the recent increase is from people getting excited to get out again.
Anyway phase 2 should be delayed by a week I would think, 2 weeks of consistent decline was the requirement.

Ontario not doing good enough, Stockholm peaked at ~200 cases per day and stayed there for about a month. 14 million people live in Ontario compared to 2.3 million in Stockholm region. You guys need to hit 1200+ cases a day to beat stockholm.

Even your own google mobility report shows Stockholm behaviour getting worse, we shall see I think it's immunity that is bringing cases down and the behaviour in Stockholm is just getting worse.

63% of reported cases in Ontario are in Greater Toronto area (5.9 million)
The city of Toronto (2.93 million) has been reporting 180 cases a day on average last week.
https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/covid-19-latest-city-of-toronto-news/covid-19-status-of-cases-in-toronto/
It had peaked earlier and is still below that peak, but a resurgence happened
The week before Toronto had average 141 cases a day, The province went up 118% week over week, Toronto 128% week over week.
(Peak week had 253 new cases a day in the City of Toronto, so still almost 30% down from the peak)

Any little immunity Toronto has by now isn't standing up to mass gatherings. If immunity actually works (the level of immunity you need to protect against different levels of exposure or different strains is still completely unknown) then yes, it will have a minor effect. If 10% actually has effective anti bodies, then that should bring the rate of infection down by 10%. It will play a small part compared to social distancing measures. It all depends on how mobility goes up, mass gatherings in parks and clubs bad, going back to work while social distancing, no problem.



Something else, reporters nowadays. Read this
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52762939
He gets tested positive for anti-bodies, can only think of a bad pneumonia he had in Januari, but refuses to accept that as a possibility. Out of fear to be labeled the first case in the UK? What about investigative journalism, go check out all those stories of military athletes that came back sick in November or got sick shortly after coming back from Wuhan. Test them for anti bodies.
https://www.news18.com/news/sports/new-revelations-from-world-military-games-participants-hint-at-covid-19-spread-in-china-in-october-2625391.html
Oliver Gorges was supposed to go for an anti body test last week, no update on that.