| Trumpstyle said: Okey guys, there's a fun mystery happening here in Sweden that I have wanted to make a post about. First I just wanna point out that we had a superb week, our numbers were just too good, so don't be surprised if our numbers might be slightly worse next week. Recently our government published a new antibody test which was bad news as we seen around the world, it showed that the population in Stockholm region had 7.3% antibodies. Now we recently had another antibody test which showed 10% which was a much bigger study. And another antibody test that was done a while back showed 20% had antibodies. So around 7-20% depending in which test u believe in, but there's somethin odd happening in Stockholm. The chart below is what the international media sees.
What you can't see in this chart is that new weekly confirmed cases for Stockholm region (2.3million people) peaked at 1464 on week 17 (april 20-26) and this week it's down to 721 cases which includes todays numbers (May 18-24) that is a 50% decrease. Basically what is happening the spread is decreasing in stockholm and increasing in other parts of sweden. The biggest increase seems to be happening in Västra götaland where our second biggest city lies, Gothenburg. If things continue they will be hit hard soon. Source for numbers:https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/y3rdeA/coronaviruset-har-ar-de-senaste-siffrorna (Swedish only) Here's a visual chart of daily cases in stockholm region, it's in a decline.
And here is for Västra Götaland where Gothenburg lies we seeing an increase.
Even in Skåne where our third biggest city lies Malmö we seeing an increase
Source for charts:https://c19.se/Sweden/ (Swedish only) This is the mystery, how come we seeing an 50% decrease of confirmed cases in Stockholm region when antibodies test only shows between 7-20% immunity. But we see an increase in confirmed cases in other places. Are the antibodies test really any good or is something random happening? I'm sure Svenneoj had already figured it out :) |
For one, Sweden proves with the anti body tests that they are not big enough and not random enough. Otherwise it would be showing a decline in anti bodies in a short period which would be really bad news for re-infection. But I bet it's just sample size and biased samples that made the drop from 20% to 10% estimate.
What's happening with the other regions compared to Stockholm has multiple reasons.
The infection started spreading later there, thus people got worried later and didn't take the same measures as in Stockholm until later. This pushes the the peak further ahead like you see happening everywhere. NY has peaked and is trending down while at least 9 states in the USA definitely have not peaked yet and as many as half are on the fence. The closer and the more people see the effects, the more they will 'believe' it's real and take precautions.
Sweden's approach is a very slow flattening of the curve, thus peaks through the country will be further spread out as well.
A closer look at mobility differences
Stockholm is also doing slightly more to stop the growth than the other two. It's not a huge difference, yet since the increase/decrease happens on a much slower scale in Sweden it will draw things out.
Fall Idag is cases per day I guess, PA Iva the running average. Week over week comparisons come to
Stockholm: 86.8% (125/144) week over week, 75.8% (125/165) 2 weeks.
Vastra Gotaland: 86.8% (66/76) week over week, 79.5% (66/83) 2 weeks.
Skane: 100% (18/18) week over week, 90% (18/20) 2 weeks.
The numbers are so small, yet Vastra Gotaland is seeing a decrease actually, slightly slower than Stockholm.
Skane has peaked as well, but shows the slowest decrease.
Seems all in line with the mobility reports.
Overall I have Sweden slowly creeping back up to even growth (like most of Europe since restrictions lessened)
For Sweden the most recent fastest decline was May 18th, on average only 83.1% of the cases a week prior.
For the 22nd the average is back up to 94.2%, while the day before it popped up to 103.9% for the day.
Filtered Sweden is still below the 100%, 97.3% current week over week trend, yet moving up 2.4 percentage points a day.
Doing better than Ontario anyway, we're up to 119.7% week over week increase. 
Unfortunately the mobility reports only go to the 16th atm, which is right when the steady increase started.
Yet trends are already moving to increased mobility, which is what I see outside as well.
Don't do enough after not waiting long enough to reduce community spread far enough, combined with a higher population density and this happens.
