Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[SvennoJ]

The positive week over week growth in Ontario (6th day in a row now) has caught the attention of the media

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-records-more-than-400-new-cases-of-covid-19-for-third-straight-day-1.4951636

For the third consecutive day, health officials confirmed more than 400 new cases of COVID-19 in Ontario.

Earlier this week, the government made its most ambitious step towards restarting the provincial economy yet with the reopening of retail stores with a street-level entrance, though officials  have not linked the increase to the loosening of public health restrictions.

Any uptick we're seeing so far is not from this weeks re-openings, rather from the week before when curb-side pickup was already allowed as well as getting things ready for re-openings this week. The weather also got better causing more people to go out. This week was busy. Better weather again, increased traffic, people shopping again, lines everywhere. That's not looking good for next week's test outlook.

This week is also not the effect of catching up on tests or doing more tests:

While the five-day rolling average of new cases has steadily increased since May 12, the number of tests performed in Ontario has fallen short of its testing capacity for the sixth straight day.

According to the Ministry of Health, the province performed 11,028 in the last 24 hour period, a far cry from the government’s goal to complete tests 16,000 daily. The province has previously said that it has the capacity to conduct at least 20,000 tests a day.

Pending tests have remained steady between 5K and 6K.


The article goes on with a summary:

As it stands, there are 25,040 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ontario, including 2,048 deaths. (CFR 8.18%)

Of all the deaths recorded in the province, at least 1,282 of the deceased (62.6%) were residents at a long-term care facility. The Ministry of Long-Term Care says that there are 165 confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks at those facilities. As a result, 4,784 residents and 1,650 staff members have tested positive for the virus, according to the province's integrated Public Health Information System (iPHIS)

Case statistics:

42.7% male, 56.8% female (216 unknown)

0-19 779 (3.1%)  0 deaths
20-39 6,206 (24.8%)  8 deaths (CFR 0.129%)
40-59 7,632 (30.5%)  82 deaths (CFR 1.07%)
60-79 5,205 (20.8%)  530 deaths (CFR 10.2%)
80+ 5,180 (20.7%)  1428 deaths (CFR 27.6%)
(17 unknown)

Greater Toronto Area account for 64.3% of all cases.
The number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 sits at 912, a decrease of 49 patients in the last 24 hours.
Of those 912 hospitalized, 147 patients are being treated in an intensive care unit, 119 of which are breathing with the assistance of ventilator.

5.9% of all cases had travelled in the 14 days prior to becoming ill
61.1% of all cases had close contact with a previously confirmed case or are linked to a local outbreak
12.6% of all patients had community exposure
20.4% of all patients had exposure information listed as pending

Of course with estimates of actual infections being 10x higher, these stats of confirmed cases only account for 10% of total infections

My local county now has 106 reported cases (+1 today) 10 active of which 4 hospitalized.