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SvennoJ on 21 May 2020
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JRPGfan said:

"CFR for the USA is 8.4% atm (Reported deaths today / reported cases May 1st)" - SvennoJ

I just looked at worldometers.info, under USA.
Closed Cases : 466,195 (cases closed with outcomes):
= 371,077 (80%) (recovered or discharged) + 95,118 (20%) (deaths)

"Where is that 0.7% coming from?" - SvennoJ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDQieIJc6Zc

Boston: (~5mins+ into the video)
Anti body showed about ~9.9% of their 780,000 population had it.
551 deaths / 78,000 = 0.7%
Their "offical" confirmed cases, tested positive is like 11,000, but they suspect actual number that have had it is around ~78,000.

Theres been like 5-6 other places/countries were the same.
(in a area of spain with ~5% infected, their IFR was the same).
Im just to lazy to go look through that many old videos of his.

Even long ago, he suspected the IFR to be around 0,5% to 1%.
More and more, its looking like its atleast over 0.7%.

"It's all over the place, and that while a lot of deaths are still uncounted based on excess deaths.
Undetected cases, uncounted deaths. If 50% of deaths aren't counted, there should be at least 20x as many cases to get down to 0.7% IFR. Drawing any conclusions from anti body tests is pretty difficult with the variation in age demographics, how many nursing homes are hit and how well testing was done so far. The under reported number for one country could be completely different for the next." - SvennoJ

Valid point, and this goes for the IFR too.
Hes just takeing the deaths are face value, ignoreing that most places its heavily under counted.

I'd say John Campbell is a optimist.... but even if deaths are higher than reported numbers.
We atleast know that IFR cannot be any lower, than 0.7%.

Thanks, yep at least 0.7% I can agree with. Closer to 1.0% would be my guess, although the older estimate of 1.2% is also still in range.

It all very heavily depends on what age group is hit most in the area tested and indeed how well the deaths are tested and counted.
But it's still a scary thought that if you happen to get tested positive in Brazil, UK, Belgium and Sweden, you're already up to a 1 in 5 chance of not surviving.


I don't remember who asked for state level numbers for the USA but I see the imperial college just released a report on that
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf
I haven't read it yet, the weather is too nice. Back outside!


Edit: One more thing, illustrating the big impact of age demographics.

Early estimates for the USA were up to 2.2 million deaths if 81% got infected, overall death rate of 0.83%
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html
https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19
Using the same table for estimated deaths by age and applying it to India for 70% infected there, I came to 2.06 million deaths
That comes to an overall death rate of 0.22%

Compensated for total infected and age demographics, 3.8x higher mortality rate in the USA vs India.

Since random anti body tests already put the death rate at at least 0.7%, those early models were actually pretty accurate!

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 21 May 2020