I could maybe see it doing 1 million, 1.5 is a bit steep for a month. But honestly it really depends on how well it takes off outside of the current fanbase. I think it's likely a lot of people who already loved the original will end up getting this either launch day or soon after, but others may be more hesitant, and considering Xenoblade 2 has only sold around 1.7m lifetime, I'm inclined to believe a lot who didn't buy that game will also skip out here.
All in all I think this is a genuinely hard one to predict sales for since the series has had a very strange history, but I will say it is definitely possible. I'm leaning toward a lower number though. I'm gonna guess around 1 million, probably over 2 million total.
XC 2 has sold, the last time we heard(which was March of 2019), 1.74 million units. Considering the pace it was selling, and being a highly rated game that was also extremely well received, it's fair to assume that it's already above 2 millions.
But there is more: XC DE is launching on a period that it has no competition from Nintendo itself. AC released more than 2 months ago, and the next big title is Paper Mario is July.Sure there are third party games releasing, but they are either port of old games or games that are nowhere as big or acclaimed as XC.
I don't know, I have a good feeling about this game. Monolith soar in popularity, alongside the favorable conditions, will make XC DE the best selling entry in the franchise so far. That's what my gut feeling is telling me, anyways.
My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.