By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
tombi123 on 28 June 2008
Edit Thread
starcraft said:
tombi123 said:
starcraft said:

Actually I didn't say anywhere that we should invalidate comparisons between  two scores from one site, I just happen to believe that an aggregate of a far wider range of opinions is a far better yardstick for game quality, a belief that is only supported when the main example you used for PS3 superiority had different reviewers.

Do I "know" how this game will trend?  No.  Can I make a reasonable and likely prediction?  Yes.  Do you honestly think that after 30/40 reviews this game will be higher than it is now?

As for the final point that you tried to invalidate by pre-empting my bringing it up?  I was going to demonstrate why it is perfectly relevant to this debate until I realised that Gobias and Windbane, in their usual rush to try (and fail) to discredit me, have in fact simply rebutted you.

At the end of the day, the poor and tremendously subjective "analysis" that you're seeking can be found in the thread title, not in my first post.

Bolded: No you don't know how this game will trend, but you claimed that you did in the first post. Can you make a reasonable prediction? No you can't. Not based off of twelve reviews. Ideally you need a minimum of thirty reviews before you can start analysing the trend. If the next four reviews gave it 9/10, that pushes up the average to 77. The average score can quickly change with so few reviews. 

Do I honestly think that after 30/40 reviews that the score for his game will be higher than it is now? Well, I don't know, it is too early to tell.

1) OF course you can make a reasonable prediction off 12 reviews.  Metacritic claims you can gain a reasonable aggregate off of just 5 reviews.  What makes you say thirty reviews should be the standard?  For a ported, late-comer game like this, there isn't much chance of it getting much more than thirty reviews.  Thirty reviews won't be the trend, it will be the end.

2) Please don't start being ridiculous.  Do you actually think this title will get ninety per cent from its next four reviews?  Don't be a fence-sitter, make a prediction.  Do you think this game will trend upwards substantially enough that it will overtake its Xbox 360 counterpart?

 

 

1) Umm... My A level in Mathematics (part of which was statistics) says 30 is the bare minimum. It is irrelevant whether this game will get 30 reviews or not. 30 is still the bare minimum. If the game doesn't get 30 reviews, it just means the average is very unlikely to be representative of the general public (gamers) as a whole. Which makes it a very inaccurate average. The vast majority of averages on metacritic (and gamerankings) are a mathematical joke. 

2) 90 from the next four reviews is unlikely but possible. Of course it could also get 60, 55, 62, 65, from the next four reviews, bringing the average down. 

I think it deserves to be ahead of the 360 overlord, because it comes with a free expansion pack, not as buggy etc. It is to early to tell where it will end up though. Again, your use of the word trend is mathematically wrong. I have shown that all it would take is a couple of high scores (anomalies) to put the PS3 version ahead of the 360 version, and anomalies don't make a trend. So it is (far) to early to say how it is 'trending'.