| Trumpstyle said: I meant ongoing lockdown in California and Canada in my previous post. What is going on with these annoying phases? There should just be 1 phase, either Trace/quarantine/self-isolate work and can keep it going or it doesn't work and countries haft to go for herd immunity as a second lockdown won't have the same effect as the first one. Weather is actually very positive, it will lower the R number, by how much we shall see. But it can be a problem when fall return and the cold is back. As for Sweden, we already hit peak infection on ~april 6, the international media can't see our charts. This is a picture of our R daily cases with both extra testing and without, the dark purple is our R number and light purple is extra testing on hospital personal.
And our dead for when it happened, includes todays number.
They both on a downtrend. |
I'm comparing week over week numbers to rule out variations
Sweden can't keep a steady decline, popping back over the 100% line. But sure the week with the highest numbers had 617 cases per day vs 570 this week, and 99 deaths per day vs 70 days this week. So yep generally heading down, just very slowly. Ontario's peak week was 570 cases per day vs 330 this week and 58 deaths per day vs 41 this week.
Better weather is not a positive here since people go out to places to enjoy the weather, some not adhering to social distancing rules. The last warm weekend caused a slight uptick in cases. The past week was cold and we're now getting a bit fewer cases than expected. The week over week change was 104% for May 7th, the result of the nice weather the weekend before. This Thursday it was 79% week over week after a miserable week(end) of cold weather and rain. Maybe hot humid weather will help, not quite there yet.
The idea of opening things up in phases is to find the balance point where the spread still goes down while life can mostly resume. Get and keep the numbers low enough to efficiently test and trace. However we have very little margin for error with an average daily growth rate of 0.975x, and there are still 14,373 tests pending, doesn't look promising to get on top of tracing if you can't even keep up with testing. I should check how many tests a day are done now, it only shows the total 510.8K total tests done in Ontario.
No talks of herd immunity here, 14.57 million people, even if 100x as many have already been infected (and all somehow build up lasting immunity which is highly doubtful) that still leaves another 12.38 million people to get infected.
The immediate concern is to get the healthcare system back to normal. Elective surgeries are scheduled to restart as well as other procedures. Hence the different phases. Open up everything at the same time is guaranteed to trigger a second wave. The spread needs to be contained more first.
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