PS4/XBO/NS - 2019 vs 2020; WEEK FIFTY-THREE!! GAME! SET! MATCH!

[The_Liquid_Laser]

PAOerfulone said:
Now that just past the latest FY reports for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo and adjustments were made. I decided to do a few calculations.

At this same point last year, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo Switch sold through 32.42731507%, 24.04823524%, and 23.04617186% of their 2019 yearly sales respectively.
If all of those percentages were to hold for this year, then the final 2020 totals would be as follows:
PlayStation 4: 11,116,298 units
Xbox One: 4,762,611 units
Nintendo Switch: 30,016,213 units.

Obviously, there is no way in hell 30 million is happening for the Switch. Animal Crossing momentum may be strong, but it ain't THAT strong! Plus, with the only game for the 2nd half of this year being Paper Mario: The Origami King, and no hardware revisions or price cuts in the works, it's not looking like the 2nd half of 2020 will be as strong as the 2nd half of 2019. Obviously, COVID-19 has thrown a monkey wrench into Nintendo's (and everyone else's) plans for this year. So we'll see what exactly they have in store. Since the Paper Mario rumor turned out to be true, there's a better chance that 3D Mario remastered collection may be true as well. I'd imagine they'd have SOMETHING big planned. Regardless, I see 2020 being roughly the same as 2019 in terms of sales. Whether or not it will be the peak year remains to be seen based on their plans.

As for Sony and Microsoft, I also have strong doubts about those projected 2020 totals being that high with the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X scheduled to release this holiday season. With the launch of their next-gen systems, their current gen counterparts are going to see sharp declines in holiday sales from last year. I would expect the PS4 to finish just shy of 10 million and the Xbox One around 3-3.5 million.

I don't think Paper Mario is the only game left to release this year on Switch.  If it was, they would never release it in July without a direct or anything.  Actually a July release for Paper Mario shows Nintendo has got plenty more games coming.  So, I agree 30m sales for Switch is too optimistic, but assuming flat sales YoY is too pessimistic.

Based on what limited knowledge we have about the rest of the year, I'd project something like this:

-Switch sales are currently up 56% YoY, and before Animal Crossing released they were up 18% YoY.
-Last year Switch Lite released week 38.  Total sales just before that (week 37) were 8,199,543.  Total sales for 2019 were 19,278,543.  Difference is 11,078,995.  They basically sold 11m from Switch Lite release to the end of the year.
-Low end estimate is they are up 18% until week 37 and then flat YoY after that = 20.8m
-High end estimate is they are up 56% until week 37 and then flat YoY after that = 23.9m

So, current estimate is they are going to sell 21m - 24m.  That takes into account Switch's strong finish in 2019 without erasing the huge lead and momentum they already have due to Animal Crossing plus being up YoY before Animal Crossing released.