Animal Crossing: New Horizons shipped 11.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

[UnderwaterFunktown]

PAOerfulone said:
Going off the Famitsu data, Animal Crossing has been consistently selling through 80-100% of its stock. Probably around the 85-90% range if I had to guess. If that were true for that 13.41 million sell-through figure, then an 80% stock would put 6-week shipments at 16.76 million. And this is just for the main three regions. If we include the overall, worldwide total, the sell-through figure is likely between 14-15 million already. So, the actual worldwide shipment total after 6 weeks could range anywhere from 17.5 million to 18.75 million.
Again, that's assuming if the Famitsu percentages are applicable everywhere else.

Anyways, even though the sample we have now is small, I'm going to go all in and say over 40 million.

You're forgetting that a large percentage of sales have been digital and when it comes to digital sales and shipments are equal. Also since physical copies have been constantly selling out in many places I'd say we're definetly closer to 90 than 85 % of shipments having been sold, maybe even a little higher.

So I doubt we're looking at 17,5 mil shipped just yet, but something more along the lines of 16 mil perhaps.