Trumpstyle said:
SvennoJ said:
More and more stories are emerging of the virus being around since last year in Europe and the US, brought back from Wuhan from the Olympic military games at the end of October. (First known case in China was traced back to less than 20 days after the games ended) That fits the timelines much better, explaining high results from immunity tests while the spread seems to be slow after testing caught up with the build up mountain of cases. Earliest community case in France has already been traced back to late December.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/europes-first-coronavirus-case-was-in-december-scientists/
Young fit people bringing the virus back for it to slowly spread until it reaches enough vulnerable people to become noticeable makes more sense than the supposed accelerated spread in February and March to reach the high numbers we have now. It also fits in with how Sweden is going down despite not doing all that much to contain the virus and how it can take a while to see numbers going down since testing still has plenty cases to pick from to fill the test capacity. And it would explain why the early models were predicting a lot more needed ICU beds than we actually ended up needing. Slower spread than assumed based on early unreliable/incomplete data.
Every time I tried to make sense of anti body tests and wild claims that it must be 10 to 50 to 100 times worse already together with all the later indications of observed doubling rates, it always ended up needing the virus to be around much much earlier than the first detected cases. Now the first community case has been pushed back to December in France, all the puzzle pieces start to slide into place.
Going forward, easing restrictions shouldn't trigger steep resurgence of the spread. Some, but not back to panic mode after a month.
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So countries like Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia never did a good job containing the virus as the international media has been saying, the virus hit them in ~February.
Meanwhile it hit several EU countries and New york State already back in Oct/Nov. But we never saw it intill it exploded in march.
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The first COVID case was identified in Australia on January the 25th from an individual who came back on the 19th of January... WHO didn't declare it as an outbreak until the 30th of January.
We started to "screen" incoming travelers on the 23rd of January, with information packs given to all travelers about the virus and what to do if they show symptoms.
So Australia was already taking action before the World-Health Organisation started to make any movements.
The first COVID death didn't occur in Australia until the 1st of March, by then we had already activated the emergency sector health plan and various emergency services were stepping up to take on the problem by stockpiling PPE, training and so on to assist the Ambulance and various health organizations.
The ball was rolling to tackle COVID here well and truly in advance before we initiated lockdown measures.
We were successful at halting the spread through a world-class health system, appropriate dissemination of information and advice from trusted resources and quick and decisive action from government that people adhered to.
Essay Pro