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BlackBeauty on 08 May 2020
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Otter said:
Wyrdness said:

Basically your whole argument here is what someone before you has said in prior years and each time things turned out differently to what they thought that's what he's pointing out each time the same argument is adjusted for example before March many people didn't think AC was as big a system seller as they were told.

Your post here even contradicts itself as Zelda which you class as an average exclusive has been the NS' flagship title at one point the NS version had over 100% attach rate as more people owned it than the platform due the not being enough Switchs in stock.

If someone said the Switches biggest software is behind it in 2018, i would say Smash, mainline pokemon and animal crossing are on the horizon. What do you say is on the horizon now? 

And Animal crossing has always been huge on portable, new leaf sold 12m. I don't think anyone expected how big horizons is but none the less it still is in Nintendo's elite and is top seller on everyone platform since NDS. 

2D/isometric Zelda =/= 3D Zelda. There is no contradiction there.

If you disagree with my opinion that Switch is unlikely to have another 20m+ year after fiscal year ending March 2021 (my comment was in response to their potentially being 3 more 20m years), I'd genuinely like to here why. Regardless of what anyone else said, it's a reasonable estimation from what I can see.

You’re repeating what’s been said before lol. 


This is the meme: This is honestly not that impressive. The Switch was always going to sell to their core audience of about 60 million, sales will fall off a cliff once it reaches that point. It's probably only going to sell to the kids of these core consumers from now on. There's been some reports from Latvia that sales were abysmal during the end of spring with people complaining about the grind in Animal Crossing. No software has been announced for the second half of the year reminding us all of the Wii U droughts.

In 2017, after Zelda and Mario the switch will fall off a cliff. Keep in mind Smash Wii U sold less than 5 million copies that wasn’t even in consideration

In 2018, people still wasn’t convinced that smash is a big deal until release. Even after release, they still said it will fall off a cliff. “Smash is just not a system seller”. “People who bought switch with Mario and Zelda were already smash fans”. Can’t possibly grow more.

In 2019, same thing. The switch already reached its core install base so a disspointing Pokémon game won’t change that.

In 2020, Animal Crossing is a non factor. Switch aha no aaa game coming out. 

- Beyonetta 3, Metroid 4 are all very important titles that could potentially be massive. Keep in mind Zelda sold 3 million copies (skyward sword) to  19 million (BOTW). 

- Mario Kart 9

- BOTW 2

- Odessey 2

- new ip

- new refreshed hardware