Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[SvennoJ]

JRPGfan said:

SvennoJ said:

46 minute video??? Any summary for people that don't want to listen to an old guy rambling on for the better part of an hour :p

UK seeing same trend as America is, more non-whites are dieing to the virus.
on avg a Black male or female, are over twice as likely to die to covid19 as their "white" counterparts.
(this is even after factoring in socio-econmic reasons, area, work, ect ect)

They show a graph that highlights "likelihood of dieing" where you see black/parki/other/indian/chinese/mixed/white.
And you can basically draw a line, outwards from the races depending on darkness of skin tone.

Basically the darker your skin tone, the more likely to die to covid19 you are.
Thats what data says. Campbell says only reason he can see for that is Vitamin D.

He's saying goverment are afraid to collect such data, or say anything about it, due to being labled as racist.
But again, he says everyone should be takeing Vitamin D.
Hes been called a racist for saying so.  He says hes a doctor, and that if it can save lives he doesnt care.

^ basically the first 10 mins.


He goes over Data for the past days for US, UK, Canada ect.

He mentions the UK did a horrible job of keeping it out of carehomes.
Over 5,117 care homes, had cases of Covid19 (upto may4th).

Also mentions that excess death is still higher than reported covid19 deaths, in the UK.
Actual number is likely higher than what it is counted as of now.

He talks about the symptoms some kids are showing in the USA after getting the virus.
Simular to the ones seen in the UK as well.  Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome.


^ 14mins.


Canada is still seeing increases in cases, at higher rates than rest of the world.
Basically whatever canada is doing to try and stop the spread there, isnt working very well.
While in most other places in the world, shutdowns/lockdowns seem to have slowed growths.
Canada just seems to slowly keep growing.


Germany believe upto 1.8m people "might" have had the virus.
Their testing shows ~169,000.
If its actually already 1.8m, then thats about ~2% of their population.
Thats still a far cry from the 70-80% needed for herd immunity.
This is over 100 days after the first confirmed case. 
Same thing is likely playing out rest of the world. 
Its too early to relax and go "glad this is all past us now" when in reality most places in the world only 2-3% "might" had herd immunity (of some form).

This is still the "start" of the virus outbreak.
The meassure's we ve all taken so far, will likely have to carry on in some form for along time.
Ei. even as you go back to work, you ll still be wearring masks, useing hand sanitisers, keeping distances when shopping ect ect.

The good news is germany re-opened for alot of work places, and hasnt seen a increase in numbers.
This means if society is doing what it should, responsibly, its possible to end lockdowns, as long as your population acts as its should to limit spread.
(basically "how you act" = "how fast things slow down, how fast you can open things up, and what level you can keep opened up")

^ 33mins.

last 12-14mins are just him showing pictures people sent him, of themselves watching his daily updates.
Basically just shoutouts and greetings back to them.

Read back the last couple pages, I've already addressed multiple other factors at play and a preliminary study over vitamin D deficiency effect with covid19 only turned up a difference of 14% normal vs 17% severe cases with deficiency.

Somalis dying much more than whites in Sweden has so many other reasons than skin color, actually sharing a lot of the same reasons why orthodox Jews are dying much more than others. (60% of deaths in Israel are from orthodox Jews while they represent 12% of the population)


Actually Canada has seen negative growth since April 27th, not a lot, but pretty consistent measured week over week, On May 6th the average was down to 87.6% week over week, slowly dropping further.

Meanwhile Spain and Germany have slowed their decline week over week. Germany was down to 55% week over week on May 3rd, and was back up to 77.1% week over week on May 6th, Spain the same, also 55% on May 3rd, 83.7% May 6th. So still declining week over week, but a slowing decline.


More and more stories are emerging of the virus being around since last year in Europe and the US, brought back from Wuhan from the Olympic military games at the end of October. (First known case in China was traced back to less than 20 days after the games ended) That fits the timelines much better, explaining high results from immunity tests while the spread seems to be slow after testing caught up with the build up mountain of cases. Earliest community case in France has already been traced back to late December.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/europes-first-coronavirus-case-was-in-december-scientists/

Young fit people bringing the virus back for it to slowly spread until it reaches enough vulnerable people to become noticeable makes more sense than the supposed accelerated spread in February and March to reach the high numbers we have now. It also fits in with how Sweden is going down despite not doing all that much to contain the virus and how it can take a while to see numbers going down since testing still has plenty cases to pick from to fill the test capacity. And it would explain why the early models were predicting a lot more needed ICU beds than we actually ended up needing. Slower spread than assumed based on early unreliable/incomplete data.

Every time I tried to make sense of anti body tests and wild claims that it must be 10 to 50 to 100 times worse already together with all the later indications of observed doubling rates, it always ended up needing the virus to be around much much earlier than the first detected cases. Now the first community case has been pushed back to December in France, all the puzzle pieces start to slide into place.

Going forward, easing restrictions shouldn't trigger steep resurgence of the spread. Some, but not back to panic mode after a month.