Yeah 11 games is in the bag for sure. 9 games currently, and Luigi's Mansion is a lock to go over 10 million while NSMBU:D almost undoubtedly will as well. So even just with the games currently out it'll hit 11 games eventually.
Add at least one more Pokemon, BotW2, likely another 3D Mario, likely a new 2D Mario means Switch pretty much has a lock on at least fifteen 10+ million sellers.
At this point I think the real question is can it hit 20? That would be super impressive if it got another five 10+ million sellers on top of what we can reasonably expect in terms of mega selling future games on the system. I don't know what those would be exactly, but there certainly are options: maybe a fourth Pokemon, maybe a second Mario Party, maybe Mario 3D World port, maybe a 3D Mario Collections game if the rumors about that are true, maybe a long shot like Mario Maker eventually hitting it, or a third party actually brings out a big AAA game on Switch, or a Switch Sports game in the vein of Wii Sports or hell honestly just a remastered and improved Wii Sports + Wii Sports Resort game with online play would probably hit it, or maybe even a hugely updated Splatoon 3 if they are at all thinking about that, or maybe Nintendo will have something brand new, or maybe even a total long shot like a fantastic critically acclaimed new entry to revitalize an old series like Metroid, Star Fox, Kid Icarus or something that blows away previous sells records, and actually now that I think about it I suppose its possible that Minecraft could sell 10 million not that we would ever find out about it probably. That's 11 things that could possibly happen, if 5 of them happen and hit 10 million that puts Switch at twenty 10+ million sellers. A long shot but its possible.
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