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SvennoJ on 07 May 2020
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SpokenTruth said:
John2290 said:
Anyone know if the US were to release lockdown in full today and magically return to life as it was in 2019 while completely ignoring the virus, how long would it take for full population infection if that were the cap. From the way things are at this moment in time? The early imperial college model was 30 days from any one point as long as the base of the curve is reached, If I remember correctly but that is out of date now?

This is very difficult to guess.  Early on, it was doubling every 2.25 days. I don't know if it would revert back to that same rate again.  But if it were, then it would take......18 days.

If we give it a more modest 5 day doubling rate, then 40 days.

Cases as of yesterday 1,291,804
1st Double 2,583,608
2nd Double 5,167,216
3rd Double 10,334,432
4th Double 20,668,864
5th Double 41,337,728
6th Double 82,675,456
7th Double 165,350,912
8th Double 330,701,824


We are 8 doublings away from hitting full population.  So take your doubling rate and multiply it by the 8 doubles to get your time frame.

Of course this is merely an academic exercise and we would immediately go back into shut down if the national doubling rate approached anything under 10 days.

By the way, we have a 17 day doubling rate right now with all the mitigation factors in place. Naturally, this rate is much higher or lower depending on your state, city, etc...

Not quite the way it works after all this slow down. You need to take the current daily reported cases and start from there again with the 4.5 day doubling rate based on highest doubling rates in reported deaths. That's the doubling rate for R0 2.2. Early on it was doubling at a much higher rate due to starting / catching up on testing, catching a lot of ongoing cases that could have been infected as much as a month earlier or even longer.

So at a rate of adding about 25K cases a day currently, going back to full spread, which is very close to 3x increase in infections every week.

75K new daily cases after a week
225K new daily cases after 2 weeks
2 million new daily cases after 4 weeks
162 million new daily cases after 8 weeks

About 2 months to reach herd immunity and mass graves :/