Switch: a multi-wave console lifecycle (prediction)

[Louie]

Otter said:

Supporting my belief that they're currently in their peak

Nintendo shipped 21.03 million units of Switch hardware in FY 2019/20, up from 16.95 million last year.

Nintendo plans to ship 19 million units of Switch hardware in FY2020/21 which runs from April 1, 2020 to March 31, 2020.

Indicating weaker software slate / demand. pic.twitter.com/vW8DCakZxe

— Daniel Ahmad (@ZhugeEX) May 7, 2020

"Nintendo shipped 21.03 million units of Switch hardware in FY 2019/20, up from 16.95 million last year.

Nintendo plans to ship 19 million units of Switch hardware in FY2020/21 which runs from April 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021.

Indicating weaker software slate / demand."

I imagine the Switches lifespan looking more like the PS1 than the PS2. Software support is one of the main reasons. 

Don't forget that we are in the middle of the Corona crisis. It is hard for companies to give accurate forecasts right now, Nintendo does not yet know how heavily software development will be affected by the virus and how much hardware production will be affected. It's only logical to be conservative with their estimates. 

Edit: Nintendo's original forecast for FY 2019 was 18 million. They outdid that by 3m units.