curl-6 said:
Otter said:
I think I'm the only who suggested a holiday 2021 launch, mainly for BOTW2/Metroid, and starving off interest which would otherwise go to PS5/SX (not essential as Nintendo can coexist but good to increase third party support which is one reason why Nintendo systems have short lives imo). Could be a tad early but I'd just say again, if the audience isn't ready for a successor in 2021 then they aren't ready for a Switch Pro either (unless it's a cheap switch tv)
Throw a meek upgrade late into the gen for what? Market it as the new shiny thing at full $299 (or more). It slows down the decline but things still decline and it doesn't secure another 5 years of software purchases or investment in the platform/brand (both from consumers but also from developers).
Meanwhile you've just got 15m people who were obviously interested in a new shiny device to rebuy a platform they'll stop using in 2 years, instead of investing them in your future eco system. Nice in the short term, risky longterm. When you actually release your successor 1/2 years later, they're not inclined to upgrade.
The Pro upgrades make sense for PS4 because it will have an 8 year life span and a decent gap between Pro and PS5 (4years). Can the Switch do that?
We've seen several times in the past that Nintendo has had a massive peak (imo 2020 is it) and 3 years later no one cares about their offerings. Both on the old platform and whatever new platform they're about to release. Maybe it's sinply about software and having the right titles but I think maintaining momentum in hardware is also a factor. If I'm not mistaken the most successful console transitions (PS1> PS2 & PS3>PS4) were all replaced the year after their sales peaked. Although things would be different as there is no need to "replace" the system.
Hopefully I'm wrong and Switch can show legs and we see software releases which continues to compete with its current mega sellers. Which is another thing we dont see from Nintendo, maybe Switch can break that curse. When all is said and done, many PS4 best sellers will be from the year it's about to be "replaced" FFVII, TLOU2, Cyberpunk, Modern warfare. You look at Nintendo platforms and you never see such a healthy spread across a systems life.
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I still think it's a mistake to use past Nintendo systems as a forecast for the Switch, as it's unlike any of them. No past Nintendo system has made it passed 3 years at $300. No past Nintendo system has had both a presence in the home console market and a monopoly in the handheld space. It's not bound by the limitations of its predecessors.
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I mean the $199.99 Switch Lite is basically the option for people who can't afford to pay $300 to get into the Switch ecosystem. There's no reason to cut the price of the main model when that exists and can serve the budget portion of the market. It basically functions as a price drop.
Apple does the same thing, they don't drop the price of the main iPhone XS, but they do introduce lower end models with features cut out at a lower price like the XR model.
Price cuts really are becoming more and more rare in gaming anyway, I think all the big 3 are becoming more and more reluctant to do them. Possibly they have internal testing that shows the people who won't buy a system until its dirt cheap are also cheap when it comes to buying software, so the juice isn't worth the squeeze. PS4 is going on 7 years old and Sony still won't cut past $299.99 as the normal price.
