| Trumpstyle said: What I mean with assumption is that we don't know when people were infected in Stockholm, they just found out someone in Dec had Covid in France, another assumption is R2.2. Why can't we just do 5-10% infected at end of March with 1806 confirmed cases and 8033 confirmed cases on april 30. That 's 4,4x increase, so 22%-44% in Stockholm had been infected by April 30. This basing on antibodies showing that 10% had been infected by end of march and our government estimate 75x more infection compared to confirmed cases. As for the rest, I don't know why people are comparing us to Norway, Denmark now as they hasn't open up their society yet, they will do it. Let's w8 I expect they will give up on mass testing/tracing/quarantine/self-isolation and just mimic us. Our immigrant communities, I remember something about they being hit extra hard because our government tried to communicate in Swedish only, we now doing it in multiple languanges. |
That's not how science works and not how the virus behaves according to available evidence. Those 5 to 10% infected at the end of March have to come from somewhere without wildly turning the R0 factor up and down.
The assumption for R0 at 2.2 is backed up by plenty evidence. It's reflected in doubling rates of reported deaths at early stages (before social distancing and lock downs have effect) Much more reliable than one test where only half the respondents returned samples.
A follow up test would be helpful, but if it's not the same 446 test results that get compared, it's still very shaky. Comparisons between different biased samples are just as flawed. It would really help if they can track at least a thousand truly randomly chosen people and test them every 2 weeks to determine how it is spreading. A bigger sample size would be better, 1000 is still less than 0.1% of the population of Stockholm. Error factors in the tests, then comparing the results that are maybe in the hundreds with each other will amplify errors a lot. With those 446 approved tests only 44 would have been positive to come to that 10% or 100K infected claim. 2 false positives and your estimate is 9K off already. Comparing it with another sample multiplies the error rate.
People are comparing you to Denmark and Norway to show how many lives are saved by stricter measures. South Korea and Japan are managing, why not mimic them. Australia and New Zealand have eliminated community spread and now only have to worry about testing and tracing incoming travelers.
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