Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Trumpstyle]

forest-spirit said:

Trumpstyle said:

But our confirmed cases is now steady even with increased testing, same with our daily reported dead, it's stable or in a slight decline. This can only mean that about 25-30% of stockholm must be immune otherwise it would just keep increasing and increasing.

As for getting down from the peak, that is not the goal from what I know. Our virus dude (Anders Tegnell) said he aims to hover around R1, this could mean slightly higher or slightly below. I'm hoping he will increase the R number as you can't ask the vulnerable people to remain isolated forever, maybe 2-4 month and they will stop isolate themself.

Where did Tegnell say that he "aims to hover around R1"? These are the latest estimates released by the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs:

I got it from twitter, I read some people twitter accounts that are critical of Anders Tegnell/Johan Giesecke.

But listening what he said it sounds more that the R number will hover around 1 and will eventually come down. But I hope it's true and they will start easing guildelines when Stockholm gets in order.

https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/anders-tegnell-sveriges-r-tal-guppar-runt-ettan/ (swedish only)

SvennoJ said:

I'm making too many assumptions? lol. I'm trying to reach your wild claim of 25 to 30% by adding up all the extremes together.

But those numbers do help.

March 10 to March 15: 152 new cases, 30.4 per day
March 15 to March 20: 247 new cases, 49.4 per day -> 1.102x daily growth
March 20 to March 30: 1200 new cases, 120 per day -> 1.093x daily growth
March 30 to April 30: 6227 new cases, 200.9 per day -> 1.017x daily growth

While the totals may be off, relative growth is still a pretty accurate indication of how it spreads once testing is up to speed.
It's slow, but expected since social distancing started around March 10th.

Now work backwards, 300K infected April 30th and 100K infected by March 30th.
Since it looks like the cases peaked during this period let's take 5500 new cases a day for March 30th, peak of 7400 and back down to 5500.
5500 new cases per day on March 30th means there were 818 new cases daily on March 10th, and 36,820 total cases in Stockholm.
Before March 10th the virus likely spread faster, R0 at 2.2 gets to 818 daily new cases in 45 days (at most if starting with 1 active case)
However that only subtracts another 900 cases, almost 36K cases unaccounted for.

It doesn't fit, trying 30x the reported cases as the 'true' number.

I tried a few different approaches with 100x the reported number and or a bunch of infected people arriving in Stockholm. Either there is no way to get to 100K by March 30th or none of the observed data trends fit.


Btw is this true?

Still, on the most basic of measures, Sweden is faring worse than its more-locked-down neighbours: Norway has reported 30 deaths per million population, Denmark 58, and Sweden 139. As the National Post’s Colby Cosh noted earlier in the week, Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s epidemiologist-in-chief, defends this as a failure not of the approach, but of component systems: It turns out Swedish nursing homes are fantastically vulnerable to COVID-19 outbreaks, just like ours. Somali immigrants are hugely over-represented among the infected. Tegnell suggested this was because they’re not doing the things public health officials are asking them to do, because they’re poorly integrated into Swedish society. (Swedes don’t need to be ordered around, because they are so trustful of officialdom, and of each other, that a kind request is all that’s needed — or so the story goes.)

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-canadians-should-wish-sweden-well-in-its-no-lockdown-approach-to-covid-19

(Just some garbage google came up with, recommending a link to covid19 coming from a lab again lol)

What I mean with assumption is that we don't know when people were infected in Stockholm, they just found out someone in Dec had Covid in France, another assumption is R2.2.

Why can't we just do 5-10% infected at end of March with 1806 confirmed cases and 8033 confirmed cases on april 30. That 's 4,4x increase, so 22%-44% in Stockholm had been infected by April 30. This basing on antibodies showing that 10% had been infected by end of march and our government estimate 75x more infection compared to confirmed cases.

As for the rest, I don't know why people are comparing us to Norway, Denmark now as they hasn't open up their society yet, they will do it. Let's w8 I expect they will give up on mass testing/tracing/quarantine/self-isolation and just mimic us.

Our immigrant communities, I remember something about they being hit extra hard because our government tried to communicate in Swedish only, we now doing it in multiple languanges.