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SvennoJ on 05 May 2020
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Graphs for Europe

Russia is getting out of control, over 10K new cases daily already.
Everyone else is doing very well, extra deep dip this weekend, hope it mostly stays.

Reported deaths recover a day sooner from the weekend dip, hence the uptick here and there already.

Norway is off the scale now, avg 1 death per day left and only 40 new cases daily.



Since Europe is starting to go to work again I'm preparing some graphs that put the weekly change more in focus.
Here's the first one for the big six:

The natural rate of the virus R0 2.2 is a 290% change week over week, any country charting already has the brakes on.

What this plots is the difference between avg reported cases today and those of one week ago.
For example, France on April 19th reported 50% of the cases they reported 7 days earlier.

Where each country dips down below 100% is where the peak is, from there they are in decline. Exception, the UK, they started growing again for a bit.
The further down the line goes, the harder the brakes are on.
France and Germany end in a thinner line, that's where they went under 1000 reported cases per day.
Russia, going back up, brakes failed :/

This can be used to see how movement restrictions correlate to stopping power, for example Italy vs China aligned at the growth peak.

China stomped on the brakes and went under 100 cases daily 25 days after the growth peak of 3604.
Italy is currently 35 days past the peak and is down to 1500 daily cases from a peak of 6029.



The question is now, how does it relate to mobility per country and will it go back up when loosening restrictions. The Imperial college seems to think so. They have done an in detail analysis of Italy, what's next.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-04-COVID19-Report-20.pdf

They calculated through what could happen when loosening mobility restrictions and it's not pretty.




They even think Lombardy still has the capability to flare up again if loosening restrictions too much.