SvennoJ said:
Trumpstyle said:
But our confirmed cases is now steady even with increased testing, same with our daily reported dead, it's stable or in a slight decline. This can only mean that about 25-30% of stockholm must be immune otherwise it would just keep increasing and increasing.
As for getting down from the peak, that is not the goal from what I know. Our virus dude (Anders Tegnell) said he aims to hover around R1, this could mean slightly higher or slightly below. I'm hoping he will increase the R number as you can't ask the vulnerable people to remain isolated forever, maybe 2-4 month and they will stop isolate themself.
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How can it go from a (not all that reliable measurement) of 10% to 25% to 30% while the reported cases are in a slight decline vs increased testing.
Even if 10% was reached from the first detected case on Februari 15th, 1 month of unhampered growth (Sweden started social distancing on about March 10th) plus another 20 days of restricted growth. Then how on earth can it now be 25% to 30% after 1 more month without further growth.
Sweden reported 17,370 new cases since April 1st. Even if we assume that it's still 10x under reported, and we pile all those cases onto Stockholm, and we take the 10% on April 1st for granted, today Stockholm could at most be at 24% infected. That's a lot of ifs, wild guesses and incorrect counting piled on top of each other.
So basically what your virus dude wants to happen is kill another 5 times as many people in Stockholm, then the rest of the country as well?
(Wild guess on deaths, it will still take 20 days to find out the fatalities from April 1st to today, when that number is known and it is indeed 24% currently, then it would 'only' be another 2x to 3x as many piled on top, excluding the rest of the country)
This is what's slowing it down
Not as drastic a change compared to other countries, hence no real decline.
At least Sweden kept the parks open and people go there to I assume stay apart from each other. That's the big misstep here, herding everyone into the few remaining green spaces that are not closed, closed to keep people apart... You don't need common sense to be a politician :)
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Case numbers aren't 10 times under reported. They're 100 times under reported.
Stockholm thought they had ~1000 cases at the end of March https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen&mid=%2Fm%2F0syfj.
Turns out they had ~100,000 and that doesn't include people who didn't need to produce antibodies.
Essay Pro