Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Trumpstyle]

Barozi said:

Trumpstyle said:

What country you live in?

We are doing unbelievable good, Stockholm metro (2.3 million people) will achieve herd immunity this month, most part of sweden 1-2 month later. Our Previous virus dude Johan giesecke has hinted everything will be fully back to normal by the end of the summer.

How is this supposed to happen when the reproduction number has been below 1 for days and the antibody tests only showed that 11% of people had developed antibodies in the Stockholm area? Yeah it says "at least" 11% and it's 10 days old but come on. In order for this to work you'd need much higher numbers than this.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/4b4dd8c7e15d48d2be744248794d1438/sweden-estimate-of-the-effective-reproduction-number.pdf
https://europost.eu/en/a/view/at-least-11-out-of-100-stockholm-s-residents-have-virus-antibodies-research-shows-28299

Our R number was between 2-3 in feb-march than went to 1.5 in late march/beginning april and is now less than 1, this is for entire sweden. I might post charts and pictures today or tomorrow about this to help countries what they should do.

The antibody test was 1 week old when it was published and has 70-80% accuracy when it come to positive results (it gives no false positive results). They who made the test estimate between 20-30% of stockholm had been infected when they published it. But they made some mistake with the test so they can't guarantee the result, they gonna make new test soon.

Same with our government next week they are suppose to give a new number how many in stockholm has been infected.

Edit: noticed your links almost said the same thing I posted. The reason our R number is below 1 is because stockholm is achieving herd immunity as our behaviour has not changed since 15 march, I would say we have actually been less and less careful since that date but because Stockholm is achieving herd immunity our R number can't rise.

Last edited by Trumpstyle - on 02 May 2020