By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
kazuyamishima on 30 April 2020
Edit Thread
Bofferbrauer2 said:
tbone51 said:

Actually disagree, it’s slowing down yes, but I think ps4 will sell alongside ps5 for the first 2 years especially if it’s msrp is roughly $500. Sony does extremely well with there services and they’ll maintain both with 2 consoles selling on the market with ps5 slowly gaining traction afterwards. Most games will be multiplat with a couple huge hits only on ps5. I can see a price cut down the line, possibly before holiday this year.  I could be wrong though lol

I don't think the PS4 will sell more than 9M this year. That's already a steep drop despite having some very heavy hitters. From there, I calculated 5M for 2021 and 3-4M for 2022+, so a maximum of 125M. And when I did that, I already took the $500-550 price tag into account.

The reason I'm not going higher is because the market will be flooded with second hand PS4 either way. When the PS3 came out, there weren't enough second hand units for everyone, so sales stayed up in industrialized countries while the developing countries just started releasing the console around those times, thus keeping it's sales up.

Hence why I compare the sales rather with the ones from the PS3 when the PS4 launched. And those went as follows:

  • 8.2M in 2013 (PS4 launch year)
  • 3.5M in 2014
  • 2M in 2015-2017 combined

So compare that to my prediction for the PS4:

  • 9M in 2020 (PS5 launch year)
  • 5M in 2021
  • 3-4M 2022-2025

and you'll see I actually gave the console quite a bit longer legs than the PS3 had.

And that's the reason why I believe 125M is the limit for the PS4, it's already following a very similar direction just before the launch of the next gen as it's predecessor did, and I don't see why the PS4 should do differently than the pS3 did. Because of big game releases maybe? Well, the PS3 got GTA V, Beyond: Two Souls, Gran Tourismo 6, Final Fantasy XIV and The Last of Us to name just a few heavy hitters the year the PS4 got released, so I don't see any advantage for the PS4 on that front either.

PS3 2013 and PS4 2020 sales aligned has a difference of around 0.5 million units in favour of PS4.

Remaining heavy hitters for PS4 are the last of us part II and Ghost of Tsushima, both games will give ps4 a decent boost in sales plus what’s left from 3rd party games.

The last official price cut for PS3 was on September 2013 at $269.

So in the end I’m very confident PS4 can do more than 9 Millions for this year.