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I don't think you can really accurately know anything about this until at least about a year from now. You don't really see decline in popular platforms in year 3. The Wii and 3DS started to show notable decline in year 4.

But year 3 is really not going to tell you much. Year 3 should be a high point in brand momentum for any successful system.

It's like trying to predict an athlete's longevity when you are seeing them at age 25 ... you really need to come back and look again at age 30/31/32, that will give you a better idea, you can't tell anything at age 25 because there shouldn't be age related decline evident by then. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 28 April 2020