Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[SvennoJ]

JRPGfan said:

John2290 said:
Fuck, just realised Russia's numbers, wow that came out of nowhere. Probably bad news for northern China if they haven't closed the boarder there and if they have that's another blow to their economy and that of the ruskies.

Yep russia was fine for along time, then suddenly they saw like [phone] daily increases, and in like a week or two, climbed up to where it currently is.
Spread doesnt appear to be slowing there yet either, its basically only just resently really kicked off.

I saw a video of a russian, that went to china, lived under the lockdown there, and came back home to russia.
He was like "are we really in lockdown? howcome it doesnt look or feel like it to me?"
He live streamed, walking around in his town, showing how no one seemingly did anything to limit spread.

Most people are just stupid, and only start to "act" when they can clearly see the results, of inaction.
The buggering of this virus is that it takes a week or two, before symptoms start to show (another week before you need hospital, and another week to die to it).
Deaths can potentially lag like a month after infections. So the spread of today, is the deaths of people a month from now.

Which means, at that point the results can be horrendous, without you even noticeing it.
When you do, its already had a few weeks of spread, and even lockdowns arnt always that fast to reduce spread.

Thanks to the new data from Google and Apple we can test these anecdotes.

Unfortunately or perhaps fortunate for Russians, Google doesn't have cell phone tracking data for Russia. Yet the Apple data does show something:

A steep decline at the end of March, and at about April 18th Russia's curve flattens.
March 27th Russia crossed the 200 cases per day on a steep climb which flattens on April 18th after reaching 4900 reported daily.
A daily increase of 1.16x between March 27th and April 18th (which is about R0 2.2) then from April 18th to today it's down to 1.02x per day, currently at some 5500 cases per day. People are limiting the spread.

To debunk Sweden not doing anything:

Google does have the data for Sweden

So yep also in Stockholm, far less traffic to stores, restaurants and workplaces.

It's to a much lesser degree than London though

The UK started late when things were already up, waiting until March 24th to give the general lock down order when there were already over 60 deaths reported daily. Sweden was and is much lower, yet the curve is flat for the UK atm while still slowly rising for Sweden.


Comparing to Ontario Canada

We're less on lock down than the UK, but more than Sweden.


Growth factors for the past 14 days: (increase in 2 weeks)

Sweden: 1.25x daily reported cases, 1.27x reported deaths
UK: 0.82x daily reported cases, 0.80x reported deaths
Ontario: 1.20x daily reported cases, 1.65x reported deaths

Past 7 days (difference with one week ago)

Sweden: 1.15x daily reported cases, 0.83 reported deaths
UK: 0.86x daily reported cases, 0.86 reported deaths
Ontario: 0.96x daily reported cases, 0.95x reported deaths

Not much of a surprise, bigger response, bigger result.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 27 April 2020