| Trumpstyle said: That's why I said speculating, I saw headlines saying they found the first covid victim in the US in Feb and they now gonna start looking in jan/dec months to see if the might have been earlier victims. Just because haven't been reported doesn't mean it hasn't happened. About the R2.2 number, don't you need to know how long it takes for that person to spread it to 2.2 person. If it takes 1 or 5 days can make big different I saw a math model suggesting the infection can increase 256x each month. Our math dude here suggesting an R1.6 for stockholm to reach 30% infected at ~10 april. "According to the curve that Tom Britton believes is most likely every virus-carrying person on average infects about 1.6 people when the spread was greatest, ie when the curve was at its steepest." This is just a google translated quote from him. For our daily dead, you can't look at reported numbers you see in the international media, as they are not when people died, here a correct graph for how many died at what date, it's the latest reported today. As you can see it started stabilise ~6 april and might peak around ~15 april.
Mars = March, apr is short for april. |
Those corrected graphs (adding deaths to the day they happened, not the day the were reported) are not accurate for the back end. When later deaths get identified they get added to past columns, so you can't say that April 15th looks like a peak, since the data for 17 to 26 is still very incomplete.
What you can tell is that the spread of the virus is indeed a lot slower in Sweden. I wonder what math he used to get to 30% infected by April 10th with a R0 of 1.6. That's about a doubling rate of 7.5 days, which that graph supports.
Taking 1 million population for Stockholm, 300k infected by April 10th, it would take 6 infected people in Stockholm on December 12th to pull that off. Even though the incubation period is variable, just like quantum mechanics, over plenty time these systems behave in a very predictable way.
I wonder what kind of math he used? But who knows how long this virus has been around. Suspicious pneumonia cases were around in Italy in late November.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-emergence-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D2IG
The mystery then becomes, why did it go undetected for so long.
Those earlier pneumonia cases could be something entirely different as well, for example 2018
https://www.thelocal.it/20180909/150-pneumonia-cases-spark-health-alert-in-north-italy
It definitely wasn't covid19 back then!
