| Trumpstyle said: That's why I said speculating, I saw headlines saying they found the first covid victim in the US in Feb and they now gonna start looking in jan/dec months to see if the might have been earlier victims. Just because haven't been reported doesn't mean it hasn't happened. About the R2.2 number, don't you need to know how long it takes for that person to spread it to 2.2 person. If it takes 1 or 5 days can make big different I saw a math model suggesting the infection can increase 256x each month. Our math dude here suggesting an R1.6 for stockholm to reach 30% infected at ~10 april. "According to the curve that Tom Britton believes is most likely every virus-carrying person on average infects about 1.6 people when the spread was greatest, ie when the curve was at its steepest." This is just a google translated quote from him. For our daily dead, you can't look at reported numbers you see in the international media, as they are not when people died, here a correct graph for how many died at what date, it's the latest reported today. As you can see it started stabilise ~6 april and might peak around ~15 april.
Mars = March, apr is short for april.
It will only get worse, people of Germany will take 1 look at sweden and wonder why they haft to wear face masks or be locked in their homes. |
Tom Britton should be taken with a huge grain of salt as he himself admits that his model has a high level of uncertainty, and that the virus is spreading slower than his model estimated.
And I very much doubt that a significant amount of Germans are looking at us and thinking "scheisse, if only we did as well as those damn Swedes".
