Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Trumpstyle]

SvennoJ said:

The USA has brought back the earliest detected death in the states to Februari 6th
https://globalnews.ca/news/6856758/coronavirus-california-early-deaths/
That's in California though, first death on the east coast was end of Februari.

Februari 6th is still a month too late, while assuming the warnings in early March and the lock down on March 20th in NY didn't do anything in the beginning.

It's pretty certain there are far more undetected cases, yet 10 times more is stretching it to its limits. That's why I think that new 75x under reported estimate in Sweden is bollocks imho.


For those graphs: lockdown, 20 days later deaths are stabilized as expected.

It's progressing slower in Sweden, the current doubling rate for deaths is 10 days in Sweden. This does not support that anti body estimate at all.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
The steepest slope in reported deaths in Sweden is from April 13th to April 16th (likely counting missed deaths since it went almost flat before that) that's a doubling rate of 5.6 days, the fastest that can be observed in the Swedish data.

So all evidence points to a slower progression of the virus in Sweden than R0 2.2 suggests, not faster!

1.3 million infected (75x current total reported) in Sweden would have taken 113 days to reach at the fastest observed doubling rate in the data (which is most definitely skewed due to under counting during Easter) That means the virus must have already been present in Sweden before Januari 3rd, yet the first reported death in Sweden was on March 11th.

It doesn't fit! Perhaps the early infections were all young and healthy people, last straw to grasp to make this work.

That's why I said speculating, I saw headlines saying they found the first covid victim in the US in Feb and they now gonna start looking in jan/dec months to see if the might have been earlier victims. Just because haven't been reported doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

About the R2.2 number, don't you need to know how long it takes for that person to spread it to 2.2 person. If it takes 1 or 5 days can make big different I saw a math model suggesting the infection can increase 256x each month. Our math dude here suggesting an R1.6 for stockholm to reach 30% infected at ~20 april.

"According to the curve that Tom Britton believes is most likely every virus-carrying person on average infects about 1.6 people when the spread was greatest, ie when the curve was at its steepest."

This is just a google translated quote from him.

For our daily dead, you can't look at reported numbers you see in the international media, as they are not when people died, here a correct graph for how many died at what date, it's the latest reported today. As you can see it started stabilise ~6 april and might peak around ~15 april.

Mars = March, apr is short for april.

Edit: Changed the date ~10 april to ~20april.

vivster said:
Looks like the US has infected Germany with a different kind of virus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52426378/coronavirus-berlin-march-against-lockdown-measures

Perfect example how irresponsible it is to teach "freedom" as an inherently positive human right without any nuance.

It will only get worse, people of Germany will take 1 look at sweden and wonder why they haft to wear face masks or be locked in their homes.

Last edited by Trumpstyle - on 26 April 2020