PS5 wins and the gap would be about the same. Total sales would be about the same too.
The main takeaway here is where is MS biggest market? That's NA, where they have managed to amass around 25M XB1 sales to the PS4s 31M. So let's say Xbox matches PS5 in sales in NA, or hell lets even say they outsell the PS5 there by 5M consoles. What about EU, Japan, and ROW which accounts for over 80M of the PS4s total sales and only around what? 30M of the XB1 sales?
Even if in all those other areas MS manages to eke out 20M more sales and lets even say that comes at the expense of the PS5 sales, that's still sony having like 40-50M more sales than the Xbox.
And mind you, for any of this to seem fair, I am making a lot of worst-case assumptions for the PS5. Simply put, MS needs a shit lot of things to go wrong for the PS5.
On a plus side, MS probably knows this, and would probably be very ok with getting around 50-60M in sales. Which in all honesty isn't bad in its own right; stuff like that only looks bad when your direct competitor is pulling in 100M type numbers.
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