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SvennoJ on 25 April 2020
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Trumpstyle said:
SvennoJ said:

That makes the outcome even less possible. If there should have been 2.7 million infected on March 25th, then with the fastest observed doubling rate of 4.6 days to double, there should have been infected people walking around before Christmas in NY. Thus the first deaths would have happened early Januari and the virus could spread problem free, at the fastest possible rate, until March 25th.

That might be possible, I think I have seen 1 or maybe few article speculating that the virus was over at the United states earlier than previously thought. Next anti body sample test will be interesting.

LurkerJ said:

Thanks for your contributions. May I ask do you where the graph below was taken from? I couldn't find the website mentioned.

Nope have not seen that graph :) but I would say some countries might had some successes with their lockdowns but I wonder their exit strategy will be, sooner or later borders needs to open up and international traveling will begin again. I can't see how they will protect themself from outbreaks when that happens.

The USA has brought back the earliest detected death in the states to Februari 6th
https://globalnews.ca/news/6856758/coronavirus-california-early-deaths/
That's in California though, first death on the east coast was end of Februari.

Februari 6th is still a month too late, while assuming the warnings in early March and the lock down on March 20th in NY didn't do anything in the beginning.

It's pretty certain there are far more undetected cases, yet 10 times more is stretching it to its limits. That's why I think that new 75x under reported estimate in Sweden is bollocks imho.


For those graphs: lockdown, 20 days later deaths are stabilized as expected.

It's progressing slower in Sweden, the current doubling rate for deaths is 10 days in Sweden. This does not support that anti body estimate at all.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
The steepest slope in reported deaths in Sweden is from April 13th to April 16th (likely counting missed deaths since it went almost flat before that) that's a doubling rate of 5.6 days, the fastest that can be observed in the Swedish data.

So all evidence points to a slower progression of the virus in Sweden than R0 2.2 suggests, not faster!

1.3 million infected (75x current total reported) in Sweden would have taken 113 days to reach at the fastest observed doubling rate in the data (which is most definitely skewed due to under counting during Easter) That means the virus must have already been present in Sweden before Januari 3rd, yet the first reported death in Sweden was on March 11th.

It doesn't fit! Perhaps the early infections were all young and healthy people, last straw to grasp to make this work.