Early Predictions: PS5 - XSX Gap + Combined sales.

[sales2099]

JuliusHackebeil said:

sales2099 said:

Can’t stress enough I feel exclusives have 0 weight in themselves beyond small bumps. Sony barely has to try and MS has to be objectively better just to stay not-far-behind. It’s unfair and subjective but in doing so I benefit immensely. While Xbox will lose in the console space, I actually believe it’s more then possible the Xbox brand can surpass PS between Console/Xcloud/GamePass/PC Xbox. 

Combined sales 180 - 200 million 

Even though I can see where you are coming from, I hav to disagree. Sure, brand recognition and accumulated goodwill do wonders for companys. But how did they get there, if it wasn't for the production of quality products.

But there is also the other side of this: when you are top dog, you still have to present top quality products. The expectations are way higher. Say Rockstar comes out with GTA 6, but it is as good as Days Gone (which I think is an alright game). People would not take it well at all. BendStudio is not THE AAA studio, it is actually quite obscure in comparison to Rockstar, so reception was better. But still not great, since people come to expect more from Sony first party.

Crackdown 3 was quite disappointing. Imagine it would have been as good as Days Gone. Of course it would have done better than the Crackdown 3 we got. But I lean towards assuming that it would have done even better (critically and commercially) than the Days Gone we've got.

That is, because contrary to what you said, I think Microsoft first party can get away with less, since the expectations are less and people are more eager for something and will more easily settle for good enough.

Also, I think exclusives play an abolutely huge role in console sales.

Also also, we don't know if "Sony barely has to try", since their output of exlusives is quite fantastic and I think they really try hard. In my estimation people would be quick to word their dissatisfaction if Sony barely tried, with a resulting dip in quality and quantity of exclusives and less consoles sold.

I suppose it’s subjective. For me the PS3 vs 360 gen will always be history that will keep on teaching decades later. Xbox made considerable effort to cater to Japan from 2006-2009 yet was met with indifference. Their output of exclusives surpassed Ps3 until 2008 yet the sales did not reflect that. The 2007 house market collapse and RROD didn’t help though.

Where as Ps3 coasted on pure brand power until MGS4 in mid 2008. If any other console had that $599 price point and so-so exclusives for the first 2 years....it would have been a Sega Saturn scenario. Europe and Japan kept Sony afloat until the console got its act together.

So while exclusives have their place, pre existing brand power makes the start position different for everyone. By no means are Series X and PS5 launching as equals. Which again, is good for me because MS has to try a lot harder to impress.