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SvennoJ on 23 April 2020
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John2290 said:
JRPGfan said:

~80% of the population in NYC are still vunerable to it.

So yes a 2nd wave could still be way more than it has currently killed in NYC.
Also what right now is 0.8-1% mortality rates, might be higher if you get both coronavirus + normal flu at once.

Normal flu doesnt go away, just because another virus is out there spreading.
Thats why experts suspect a 2nd wave to be much much worse than the first one.
(history also shows this, with the spanish flu)

Lets wait and see on that with a larger smaple but this is the first good news in weeks, it's a ticket out of this shit and nah, If these numbers are true it means a massive difference in hesitation of roll outs and brings down what we have to worry about by a large margin. I get the trouble with the second wave but the higher that number the better the worlds future is on all sides of this mess and who the fuck would have believed that number was going to hit double digits even in the city but 14% state wide is such a massive improvement over all the projections  I was reading silly figures like 3-5% which would have left things at at over 3% mortality. Besides for this meaning tens of millions less dead in the third world and shaving almost 200 million off the worst worldwide projections, We in the west can keep the vulnerable and people with conditions locked down and resume to something manageable without having society crumble aroubd us if that should be a last reaort should everythig go sideways. This is good news, man, enjoy it. 

Why are you celebrating it being far more infectious (if the tests are accurate) than previous believed, needing a far higher percentage with enough anti bodies to reach herd immunity, which is still a big maybe how long and how much that will be effective.

If anything, it's only more dangerous if this is accurate. 0.8% of the world population is still 62 million people. Herd immunity won't be reached until 82% has enough capable anti bodies. This only points to even more strict social distancing to limit the damage.

If the 2.7 million figure based on (a little biased) anti body testing in NY is true, reported deaths in NY state divided by 2.7 million is a current death rate of 0.77%. Of course with average time of 20 days between onset of symptoms and death, that rate is still going to go up, plus uncounted / undetected deaths.


The more infectious, the harder it will be to keep the vulnerable safe. I feel more worried for my wife now and will not go to the chiropractor any time soon, not worth the risk.

I am getting my pool opened next Thursday (a bit early but my pool guy wants to escape up North). He said he'll do all the work there, no need to come see him. I guess I'll put the cash in the pool shed before he shows up and leave everything alone for 4 days (water and chemicals need to settle anyway) to be absolutely safe. I still haven't been to any store since early March, just to the trail to get some fresh air while avoiding people. It's only a few km from here so tank is still nearly full. Food still well stocked.

Meanwhile Ontario posted another new daily high reported cases:
Ontario health officials logged 54 new COVID-19 deaths and recorded a single-day high by confirming 634 more cases on Thursday, as the province continues to ramp up testing for the novel coronavirus.
One positive, no new cases reported in my local county the last 2 days. Yet if these anti body results are true then there could be a thousand undetected cases walking around...