JRPGfan said:
John2290 said:
14% is really good news. I was half expecting these tests to come out at something stupid like 5%. This is celebration worthy news if the it holds true with more testing and with 3000 people in that pool, I can't see why it shouldn't stay at that general %, maybe even edge higher.
I wanna see what that percentage is for the city alone, It's gotta be waaaay higher. Fingers crossed for something ober 30%. I mean at 30% you can't get a second wave bigger than the first if the population cap is on the lower end, hell, New York is a big state landwise, the city might show something closer to half than closer to the 14%.
|
~80% of the population in NYC are still vunerable to it.
So yes a 2nd wave could still be way more than it has currently killed in NYC.
Also what right now is 0.8-1% mortality rates, might be higher if you get both coronavirus + normal flu at once.
Normal flu doesnt go away, just because another virus is out there spreading.
Thats why experts suspect a 2nd wave to be much much worse than the first one.
(history also shows this, with the spanish flu)
|
There are cases of people overcoming Covid without producing antibodies. T-cells and cytokines can take care of it before antibodies are needed.
The IgG antibody test doesn't become 95%+ accurate until after ~21days - the test gives false negatives until the antibodies are high enough to register.
The 2nd wave of Spanish Flu killed more because it had mutated to become more deadly to the fit/healthy. The people who caught the milder version in the 1st wave had immunity to the deadlier 2nd wave strain.
Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 23 April 2020
Essay Pro