Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[haxxiy]

JRPGfan said:

jason1637 said:

When its all said and done, its probably gonna end up higher than that, could still be ~1%+.

1) This is assumeing that the way they got the survey info is done right, and the randomness of its sample size reflects the rest of society at large in that area.

So its not 100% certain in anyway.
2) 3000 is a decent enough sample size but, theres still error margins that can effect things.

3) Plus death lags, if you test for antibodies "now", you need to factor in the death lag (not look at current deaths).
Dieing to this thing can take a week or two.

Basically 1-2 weeks from now, we should look at deaths in NYC (+add in the home deaths)
and then we should be able to get a more accuate number of deaths this thing causes.

While there are quick polling methods and tests for some diseases that can gather results in a few hours, I strongly doubt the results you're seeing pertain to today as opposed to samples gathered over the course of a few days a while back, and then the time needed to confirm results. Besides, these particular antibodies take weeks after the onset of symptoms to produce in measurable quantities that are able to be detected after the onset of symptoms (months or years even, depending on the disease, but likely on the lower range for this one).

Also, NYC, for instance, seems to be doing a fairly complete job of counting all probable deaths, since the total number of Covid-19 deaths (including the probable cases) are more than a match for the excess mortality in the city, versus the average, since the beginning of March. More, even.