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jason1637 said:
jason1637 said:

Cuomo revealed some results from the antibody testl. 13.9% New Yorkers tested positive in this test.

NYC is ~21%

Long Island  ~16%

Westchester ~11%

Upstate NY ~3%

He also said that the State has not counted at home deaths into the 15,5k deaths.  So with nursing home and hospital deaths the rate of death is 0.5% based on the antibody test right now. Will probably end up being more than that when all the deaths from homes and the deaths still happening at hospitals and nursing homes have been accounted for. 

When its all said and done, its probably gonna end up higher than that, could still be ~1%+.

1) This is assumeing that the way they got the survey info is done right, and the randomness of its sample size reflects the rest of society at large in that area.

So its not 100% certain in anyway.
2) 3000 is a decent enough sample size but, theres still error margins that can effect things.

3) Plus death lags, if you test for antibodies "now", you need to factor in the death lag (not look at current deaths).
Dieing to this thing can take a week or two.

Basically 1-2 weeks from now, we should look at deaths in NYC (+add in the home deaths)
and then we should be able to get a more accuate number of deaths this thing causes.

newwil7l said:
Based on those antibody tests and assuming the death rate is undercounted. We are looking at around 0.8-1% mortality rate which is significantly worse than the flu still, but not nearly as bad as originally thought.

^ my thinking too, at minimum I'd suspect number to be over 0.8%.

Yeah this is like 8-16 times more deadly than a flu (bad ones are usually like 0.1%).
Then you need to factor in how much more easily it spreads (so larger amounts of people could get it).
(flu have R0 like 1.3 (on avg 1 person infects 1,3 others), while coronavirus is supposedly over 3, 1 person infects 3 others)

This could still be like getting 19-37 years of flu all at once (if you let it infect like 70% to reach herd immunity).
(which is why we re now all practising social distanceing)

*OBS!  
That 0.8% is just for the US strain of the virus (which supposedly is abit milder). This also assumes hospitals can keep up with demand, and treatments.
In 3rd world countries, I bet its much higher.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 23 April 2020