Trumpstyle said:
John2290 said:
Well, with 40 thousand American souls lost going into extended lockdowns, I'd say he chose the wrong model esspecially when most countries are saying they've only got half the mortality data. I don't know what the end result is here, wheter it's the high end or the low end but we KNOW it's not the low end already and if it's even in the middle, 150 thousand Swedes will die should the virus gind it's way into every nook and cranny. So say, one third of the population gets infected this year which would seem likely in this middle of the road look at things and 50k dead. Problem is, once the hospitals start to triage, even if it falls to something more optimistic on the virus side the death rate will rise within hospitals from other occurances as well as a narrowing of the recovery rate and not to mention the effect this will have on society and the economy in the form of a lack of a loss of essential workforce, the collapse of knots along the supply line, a loss of essential services like electricity, water, etc.
We are all fucked, every country in the world is fucked by this to some degree, Sweden just chose to be a little more fucked than others.
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There's no way Sweden will reach 150k or 50k death, we are at 1.5k now and our daily death are stable even going down slightly. I don't know where you got that number from.
JRPGfan said:
Prof. John Giesecke believes that mortality is 0.1% (he says so in the video).
Theres about ~6000+ nurseing home deaths in the UK, that are likely Covid19.
Ontop of the 16,000+ deaths the UK already has.
This means that a country like the UK with a population of 66million, if 0.1% mortality is true, already has 1/3 of its population infected?
Do you actually believe that?
Wouldnt this be easy to prove? in the UK just go test 10,000 random people and see if 1/3 of them have it.
If they do, John Giesecke is right.
If they dont, John Giesecke is wrong.<
(66million 0.1% (0.001) = 66,000+, with their current ~22,000 deaths, (60k/22k = 1/3rd))
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I don't know, I didn't watch the video, you were suppose to read the tweet not watch the video.
If we do Italy, it has 60million population and 0.1% of that is 30-60k total death if Italy has between 50-100% of their population infected. They might be able to reduce that if they can protect their elderly or the 0.1% number might not be exact.
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"There's no way Sweden will reach 150k or 50k death, we are at 1.5k now and our daily death are stable even going down slightly. I don't know where you got that number from."
14,385 confirmed Cases tested positive for covid 19 in sweden.
2090 cases closed.
550 recovered.
1540 deaths.
So far, out of the 14,000+ people in sweden tested positive for this virus, only 550 have recovered.
Its too soon so really say anything about how many this will end up killing yet.
However, Im more likely to believe in Dr Campbell.
Dr John Campbell. (a UK virologist) who is very "glass half full" type (optimistic), is saying around ~0.5-0,8%.
Based on data from various countries.
Basically 5 to 8 times more than your "Prof. John Giesecke".
Useing 0.8% :
10,3million swedes x 50% infected x 0.8% (0.008) = ~41,200 deaths in sweden (before 50% infection rate reached)
^ thats a very optimistic view imo.
Also this doesnt say anything about all those people that will have to live with bad lunges, damaged kidneys, livers after they recover.
Also we dont know if you actually ever become immune, or if you do how long it lasts.
Maybe "immunity" only lasts a few months, and then next time (a year lateron) covid19 comes back, it starts infecting sweden again anyways.
It might all be pointless deaths.
Last edited by JRPGfan - on 19 April 2020
